Tons of ranked teams going head-to-head this weekend
#6 Oregon @ #3 Penn State
The Ducks took last year’s huge Big Ten championship game against the Nittany Lions, 45-37. Based on that score alone, this looks like an easy Over play with the O/U set at a modest 51.5.
Each team puts up intense pressure on defense. Right now they have between them two of the top three scoring defenses in the nation. That could send us back to the Under. Fence-sitting? Ok, guilty.
Either way, the Oregon-Penn State odds are telling us this will be another one-score game, with Penn State now getting the edge at -3.5.
How do you uncover the real edge for this year’s rematch? Both teams have inflated numbers after playing cupcakes so far this season. Oregon has averaged over 40 in point PF/PA in its first four games. Penn State has allowed just 17 total points in its first 3 games. But none of the teams the Nittany Lions have faced are in the top 75 in offense.
Crazy numbers, but tough to gauge how strong each side is before real opponents show up. All that changes this weekend for both teams.
Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton could be the real difference makers here. The Penn State RBs have been under the big game pressure before. They combined for just under 230 yards in last year’s showdown vs. the Ducks.
In a game that looks to be strength vs. strength, a power running game to grind down the Oregon D might just tip the balance in Penn State’s favor.
#17 Alabama @ #5 Georgia
There are home winning streaks. And then there’s Georgia’s 33 home game winning streak. The Bulldogs haven’t lost at home since 2019, when most of their current roster was in seventh grade.
The Alabama-Georgia line gives ‘Bama the best shot in years at stopping that streak. Georgia’s favored but by just 3 points. That’s a dropped ball, a muffed punt, or a doink away from being a massive upset. Sure, their record ATS during that time is 11-21-1. So in terms of SU, Georgia has complete dominance at home. But ATS it’s another story.
Is this Alabama lineup up for stopping the streak though? We’re not so sure.
The Crimson Tide’s Week 1 loss to FSU was pretty ugly. They gave up 4 TDs and well over 200 yards rushing, including close to 80 for a mobile QB in Castellanos. Not great numbers heading into Sanford Stadium. Georgia has hit close to 200 yards on the ground in every game this year, and QB Gunner Stockton can move too.
The upside that might put Alabama over the top? QB Ty Simpson is coming into serious form, completing almost 85% of his passes in his past two games since that first shaky week against the ‘Noles. Georgia’s own coach, Kirby Smart, just called him the hottest quarterback in college football.
If you like the hot hand, take the Tide to beat the spread. If you like epic winning streaks, stick with Georgia.
#4 LSU @ #13 Ole Miss
The LSU-Ole Miss rivalry goes way, way back. But adding to this week’s massive game is the fact that both teams rarely meet as undefeated. Last time was 1959. This isn’t a loser-goes-home match, but it’ll go a long way towards the SEC title and possible CFP first round bye. The combo of stakes + rivalry adds to the pressure on both squads, and oddsmakers are also finding it tough to call.
Ole Miss, despite being ranked 9 spots lower in the AP Top 25, comes in with the slight edge at -1.5.
They’ve got to be banking on home field advantage, because LSU has the better ranking for a reason. They’ve already taken down big-time programs in Clemson and Florida, even though both are having tough seasons.
The X factor here is Ole Miss freshman QB Trinidad Chambliss. He’s put up numbers, no doubt – hitting over 300 in the air and 100 on the ground just last weekend. But how will he do under the big national spotlight against a program like LSU? Keep an eye on the news as the game approaches, and see if Lane Kiffin opts to put in the frosh again or goes back to Austin Simmons, who appears healthy again. Then make your call on who you think can handle all the pressure.
#21 USC @ #23 Illinois
The USC-Illinois matchup looks to be a shootout if you judge it by the totals. Oddsmakers have the O/U set at 59.5, so expect fireworks. Especially if you think the Fighting Illini’s defense will get spanked like they did against Indiana last week, allowing 63 points. Expect a strong bounce-back effort by Illinois because of that beatdown. They’re not going to want to go through that again.
But hold on. USC isn’t going to roll over either. If Indiana’s QB can throw dimes and lead his offense rack up 63 points, imagine what an even better QB like USC’s Jayden Maiava can do.
Maiava has 6 TDs and zero interceptions on the season so far. He’s also got weapons like Eli Sanders at wide receiver who can light up the weaker Illini secondary.
What could keep this game within the current 7-point spread is the intangible aspect. Illinois can’t afford to have a second loss on its record this season if they have any hope at the CFP, plus they’re going to be seeing red (literally) after that once-in-a-generation embarrassment. If you think those factors, plus a welcoming home crowd, can make the difference, look for Illinois to at least beat the spread. If you’re a numbers person, then everything is pointing to USC to rack up big points.
#1 Ohio State @ Washington
The Buckeyes vs. Huskies game could feature the rare contrarian play of going with the favorite.
That’s because the Huskies are going into the game very likely without the services of two of its top linebackers, both with knee injuries.
Those defensive injuries alone could leave the Buckeyes backfield licking its chops and running wild all game long. It’s a 3-man committee of great running backs with the youngest, freshman Bo Jackson, ripping off 12 yards per carry.
Add in more injuries to other key players on the D-line and in the secondary, and we’re surprised this line of OSU -7.5 is as close as it is. The moneyline seems more accurately priced at -320 Ohio State.