The halfway mark of the college football season.
#16 Vanderbilt @ #10 Alabama
Welcome to college football, where a 3-1 team is a double digit favorite over a 5-0 team…
We guess it makes sense to Vegas, but the Vanderbilt-Alabama Week 6 game looks like a classic case of a brand name team getting all the public hype and the books shading the lines.
The Commodores haven’t just played cupcakes on their way to 5-0 this season. They beat #11 South Carolina, their QB Diego Parva is getting Heisman whispers, and they’ve looked like a team that could crack the top 10 in the AP 25 any week now.
And it was just a year ago that Vandy rocked Alabama (then #1 in the country) 40-35. Either this fresh Week 6 battle builds on the confidence of that big upset, or the Crimson Tide let the revenge factor carry them to a W.
The law of averages suggests it might not happen this year. First, before last year’s game, Vanderbilt hadn’t beaten ‘Bama since 1984. Not a typo. Second, the Tide are averaging 40+ points per game and giving up on average just 14. They looked impressive in holding off a strong Georgia team last week, and they can’t afford anymore losses after that Week 1 surprise L to FSU.
Revenge or a repeat? A spread of 10.5 looks like a big spread in a crucial game. Then again, revenge is sweet.
#18 Florida State @ #3 Miami
There hasn’t been a meaningful Florida rivalry game with both schools ranked this high since the classic Michael Irvin/Deion Sanders days.
Both teams are on fire this season and this FSU-Miami game could be a classic.
FSU is coming off an intense double-OT loss to Virginia last weekend. The question is whether they can re-energize in time for their biggest game of the year. It’s one they have to have if they want a realistic shot at making the CFP. The ‘Noles can’t have two losses on their record.
The ‘Canes aren’t looking to give them much slack though. Miami is 4-0 and they’re coming off a dominant win over the Gators. FSU is the only ranked team left on their schedule, so they’ll be fired to keep a potential 12-0 record in play.
The X factor here is Florida State’s Tommy Castellanos. Threw a game-tying TD with 30 seconds to go last week. If it’s close – the Miam-FSU spread of 5.5 keeps it within a TD – Castellanos could be the difference-maker.
#24 Virginia @ Louisville
The Cavaliers earned their first appearance in the AP Top last week with that massive win over Florida State.
But betting fans know what a letdown game can look like, and this Virginia-Louisville game might have all the requirements. It’s tough to get up right away, even after winning a double-OT thriller against a ranked team. It was the game of the year for a lot of Cavs players. You can’t always find that extra gear for an unranked opponent just a week later.
Chandler Morris, the Cavs’ QB, did rack up 3 TD passes and two rushing touchdowns that game. But the Cardinals defense has allowed fewer than 19 ppg on their way to 4-0. That’s why the line is under a converted TD, at -6.5 for Cavaliers. Lower than you’d expect from a team that just hung 46 on FSU.
Either way, we could be looking at one of the highest scoring games of the NCAA football season with totals figure of 62.5. If you think fatigue and letdown vibes could be factors and throw in a Louisville defense that has some teeth, the Under could be solid value.
#9 Texas @ Florida
Texas vs. Florida doesn’t have the same power it did a couple years back, but this matchup still features two of the most iconic football schools in the country.
Texas has beaten up some easier teams but this is a whole new ballgame. It’s their SEC opener, and while The Swamp isn’t as dangerous as in past years, it’s no picnic.
It’s the Florida defense keeping the Gators in games this season. They were close heading into the 4th quarter last week against the #3 Hurricanes and held LSU to just 20 before that.
On the other side of the ball, Arch Manning hasn’t lived up to the hype but he’s still outplaying Florida’s DJ Lagway, who is the worst-rated starting QB in the conference this year.
Florida has held two top 10 teams to under 30 in the last few games. Maybe this is the week that they catch some breaks? Nah. The Longhorns’ D makes up for any shortcomings in Manning’s game – they’re ranked second in country in points against.
Either way, the O/U is a low 41.5 already, and even then, taking the U looks like it’s the move.
Boise State @ #21 Notre Dame
How is a 2-2 team still sitting comfortably in the AP Top 25?
How are they favored by 20.5 against a 3-1 team? Those are the questions that the smart money is asking heading into the Boise State vs. Notre Dame game in Week 6 of college football.
While Boise State alum Ashton Jeanty just lit up the NFL in his breakout game last weekend, the Broncos’ offense is still piling up close to 500 yards per game this season. But hang on. Aside from Air Force, their two wins have come against soft opponents.
What that spread is showing is that the Fighting Irish offense is also no joke.
In their two losses, both to ranked teams, they still averaged 32 ppg. For their wins, they racked up 56 points in their last two games. CJ Carr is getting better every game, and RB Jeremiyah Love is looking to carry the team on his back to reach the CFP again. Jadarian Price is also a serious problem for the Broncos defense whenever Love needs a breather.
With two losses, Notre Dame has to run the table from here until the end of the season. Expect a tough road visit for Boise State. But 3 touchdowns tough? We’re not so sure.