The latest tips on the biggest college football games
#8 Alabama @ #14 Missouri
How do you stop a team that’s racking up 300+ yards per game on the ground? The Tide need to figure that out, and that’s why they’re only favored by 4 points in the upcoming Alabama-Missouri game in NCAAF Week 7.
Betting fans who like the Tide need to know that they’ve already given up over 225 yards in games against Georgia and FSU, and it’s Mizzou that has them all beat as the #1 running team in the country behind Ahmad Hardy, who already has 9 TDs and 730 yards rushing this season.
But ‘Bama needs to get it done. After that Week 1 loss to Florida State, they can’t afford a second loss this season. That urgency alone could push them over the top. They have the talent, with Ty Simpson at QB. Simpson is sitting at the top of the entire college football world when it comes to QB Power Rankings. He’s got the Tide into 5th spot for passing yards – a weak spot for the Missouri defense. He’s also rolling since that opening week hiccup: 13 TDs and just one pick in the last 4 games for Alabama.
This comes down to which attack you think is stronger: ground or air? The weather forecast, something the oddsmakers often overlook, looks good for passing – clear skies, warm air. And don’t underestimate the motivation for ‘Bama to not lose another game for a team that needs to dig in its heels to stop the run.
#7 Indiana @ #2 Oregon
A top 10 battle this far into the NCAA football season is always a great game. Any top pretenders that haven’t fallen away yet are usually exposed by the end of this weekend.
Indiana at Oregon brings that tension to the Ducks’ home field, and the odds are leaning towards the Hoosiers being exposed. At +7, they’re getting a full TD as the underdog.
On paper, it should be closer than that. Both sides have elite offenses and both are unbeaten.
The X factor is Fernando Mendoza, the Hoosiers’ QB who has gotten hotter than anyone expected this season. He has 16 TDs vs just one INT so far and has thrown for over 1,200 yards already. Suddenly he’s looking like a #1 pick in next year’s NFL draft. We like momentum plays with teams this closely matched. Usually. But playing at Autzen is a different beast.
Oregon is 18-0 in its last eighteen games at home, the longest home win streak in the country.
The line has tightened from its opening at 8.5, suggesting the Hoosiers are getting more respect from the books and the betting public. But Ducks’ QB Dante Moore is almost as hot as Mendoza these days, and that home crowd could make all the difference.
#6 Oklahoma @ Texas
The Red River Rivalry game is one of the top college football games every year. More hype comes when both teams are ranked, like they usually are, when it comes to the Oklahoma-Texas game.
But the Longhorns went from a preseason #1 ranking to an unranked crew that is floundering under Arch Manning. Last week’s loss to Florida drove a stake through the ‘Horns. With rivalry pride at stake though, this could be a wounded team that comes out on fire. That has to be the reason why it’s Texas favored by 2.5 points, usually unheard of when a #6 faces an unranked team.
The Sooners might get a boost from the return of John Mateer, the QB who was in the Heisman conversation before he got hurt last month. Even if he’s not ready to go, it’s the Oklahoma D that Texas has to worry about. They’ve only given up 3 – three – points per game on the road. And with Manning’s shaky confidence right now (he completed just 55% of his passes last week vs the Gators), the Sooners’ defense could win this game on their own.
#15 Michigan @ USC
One of the biggest Big Ten rivalries has taken a bit of a hit because of USC’s drop-off in recent years. But it’s still a high-visibility game that you know both teams have had circled since the offseason.
The home field edge, the fact that USC is coming off a bye, and that rivalry boost are the reasons why the unranked Trojans are getting a slight 2.5-point edge in the Michigan-USC odds. Jayden Maiava, USC’s elite QB, is second in the country in passing yards right now, so that might also be a factor.
On the other hand, the Wolverines could be a solid ‘dog pick because of their dominant rushing game. They’re racking up 6.5 yards per carry and close to 240 yards per game. They also got a wake-up call after losing to Oklahoma last month, putting up an average of close to 40 points per game since then.
#1 Ohio State @ Illinois
Feels like Ohio State is getting ready to run the table this NCAA football season.
The Buckeyes are allowing 6.3 points per game through their first five, not even allowing one game with over 10 points. A crazy stat if it holds up through the full 12-game season. They’re also 4-0-1 ATS, making them a low-risk, low-reward but reliable chalk pick every week.
Who’s also covering almost every game this season? The Fighting Illini. But they’re just not comparable to the Buckeyes by any other metric. Illinois couldn’t even manage 160 yards of total offense against Indiana last week. That includes 2 – not a typo, two – yards of rushing. The Buckeyes’ D is not going to give them a break.
Meanwhile, Bo Jackson, Ohio State’s stellar running back, is picking up 7 yards per carry this season.
The rest of the Buckeyes’ offense is coming up against an Illinois team that is 119th in the country in pass yards against.
The 14-point spread seems generous for the Illini in this Ohio State-Illinois game. The Buckeyes look like a juggernaut.