Previewing the biggest opening-week matchups like LSU-Clemson and Louisville-Ole Miss with spread, totals, and upset/value angles
NCAA Football officially starts this week, even after Coach Belichick stole an upset for this UNC squad in Ireland last weekend.
We called the Under and the Tar Heels to beat the spread. So what does Week 1 bring us when it comes to college football odds?
LSU-Clemson betting, for starters. One of the biggest games on the calendar in a weekend filled with non-conference matchups that are ripe for mispricing. Louisville and Ole Miss odds for their game on Sunday night are also worth a look, since the books can only set odds based on last season’s data and Ole Miss has been downgraded before the first snap.
Clemson vs. LSU Preview
Clemson heads to No. 11 LSU on Saturday, Sept. 5, with LSU sitting as a 10.5-point home favorite. LSU’s Tiger Stadium gives them a real edge, and that could be the difference-maker between two squads coming off 7-6 seasons.
This game is all about the Lane Kiffin era starting in LSU. It’s going to get a ton of attention (and the public handle that comes with it). Maybe some anti-Kiffin bets will be coming in for spite too, after he ditched Ole Miss late last season. The case for LSU is pretty straightforward though, if you’re playing the moneyline with them sitting at a heavy -420. They’re at home, they’ve got A-listers all over the field, and Kiffin is a top coach, even if you don’t like his ethics.
That coaching change is also the reason to be careful laying points though. Early season NCAAF games are full of bigger spreads that end up getting covered by the ‘dog. Teams, even the top ones, are still sorting through the playbook, turnovers happen more, and game plans are more cautious since everyone is in learning mode and has some rust. The books know that too, which is why the spread is just 10.5 points for a game with a much bigger imbalance on the moneyline.
Kiffin’s offense can be explosive, but Week 1 is not always the best time to trust a brand-new staff and a roster full of new faces. In a high-profile game like this against a solid opponent, be wary of any double-digit spreads for the favorite.
Is Clemson a Live ‘Dog?
Clemson has issues of its own after going 7-6 straight up and 5-8 ATS last year.
That doesn’t mean they’re walking into Baton Rouge as a typical double-digit dog. Clemson has enough defensive speed and enough big-game experience to keep the game close. Coach Dabo Swinney is in Kiffin’s league as one of the handful of brand name NCAAF coaches, so you know he’s coming into his 24th season with his team prepared.
The total is worth a good look at the current Under of 51.5. On top of all those variables that season openers bring, both teams are working in new QBs. Transfer portal vibes.
Clemson’s Colson Brown is coming into his third school in his college career, not a great spot for a position that needs rhythm and continuity more than any other. He also has labels like “raw” and “long-term project” attached to him. In front of the insane LSU crowd with his newest team, don’t expect him to run up the score.
Sam Leavitt joined LSU after ditching ASU in another transfer. Talent-wise, he’s got the edge over Brown. But he’s still on a new squad with all-new offensive linemen and receivers to work with.
Don’t look for this year’s Clemson secondary, which was a sad 122nd in the country last year, to be easy pickings for Leavitt. Swinney brought in four new DBs through the portal. More evidence that the Under could be the play.
Louisville-Ole Miss Week 1 Preview
Louisville and Ole Miss are two AP Top 25 teams squaring off in Week 1, in a weekend packed with seeds getting cupcake matchups.
Thanks in part to Kiffin (before he skipped town), Ole Miss is the better-known favorite this early in the season. They’re #9 in the polls, which means #24 Louisville is still getting nearly a full touchdown.
That makes Louisville worth a look for college football bettors who aren’t just going chalk for opening weekend. Ole Miss has more preseason hype, mainly because of their elite QB and their #3 finish overall last season. That should also make you wonder why they’re starting the year six spots back at #9. Voters are clearly docking the team because of Kiffin’s departure, and they need to see a game or two to see if they can do just as well without him.
Forget the coaching. On the field is where it ultimately matters. Louisville has enough defensive playmakers to make this a tight game. Star running back Isaac Brown can do the rest. For his Over props and to keep the score close, have a close look at Brown as the X-factor in this one.
If you’re leaning more Ole Miss because of star power, there’s a case there too. QB Trinidad Chambliss is back, and a vet starter early in the season can settle a team down fast. Especially when you look on the other sideline at Louisville’s Lincoln Kienholz, starting his first game for the Cardinals after transferring out of OSU. Add in Ole Miss’ RB Kewan Lacy and his 1,500-yard, 24-TD season from last year and they could find their groove fast.
Week 1 NCAAF: Beware of the Cupcakes
Like we said above, Week 1 of college football means even the best teams are still finding their footing on both sides of the ball. That evens the playing field for the underdog ATS.
You’ll see it every year, a lineup of top seeds going up against programs that are 1/10th their size. It’s big business for the smaller schools but more of a tune-up game for the bigger programs before the conference matchups come in a few weeks. For NCAA betting fans, they’re called cupcakes for a reason. Tasty, tempting, but maybe that not good for you.
This season is no exception, with games like #1 Ohio State vs. Ball State, #3 Georgia vs. Tennessee State, and #5 Texas vs. Texas State. The spreads for these games tend to get crazy but the stats back the underdogs.
In the last 10 years, FBS ‘dogs of 28 points or more have actually covered 56% of the time. For a week where you have spreads of -50.5 (OSU) and (-30.5) Texas, look more closely for value in their opponents. Those massive spreads mean the favorite has to execute to near perfection and not take a foot off the gas in the 4th quarter with a big lead, which coaches tend to do to rest their big names for the games that matter.