Deep dive into the marquee Ohio State-Texas matchup, with spread, total, player props and matchup-specific betting angles
Week 3 of NCAA Football has it all and everyone is checking the LSU-Ole Miss odds ahead of every other game. Your SEC betting picks and every other wager for college football Week 3 are going to be led by the Lane Kiffin revenge matchup between these two top 10 teams.
LSU vs. Ole Miss Odds
The headline angle is obvious for this one, and there might not be a bigger one in all of NCAA football till January. Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford with his new Tigers squad after one of the biggest betrayals in sports we’ve seen in years. Kiffin ditched the Rebels before the CFP for the shinier, more lucrative LSU program.
The smart money will avoid letting the Kiffin storyline do all the work though. Both sides still need to suit up. The game will be decided on the field, not on social media.
Both rosters are built to score and the Rebels haven’t lost a step so far with Kiffin gone. The SEC title is a dogfight every season, so neither team can afford the L here. They also can’t get too wrapped up in the drama since there are other teams in the conference beyond just these two.
It also doesn’t get much tighter this early in the college football season to have #7 vs. #8 in just Week 3. LSU-Ole Miss odds have the Tigers with the -150 moneyline edge while Ole Miss is at +130. As expected with two offenses that rack up the yardage and points every week, the O/U is at 58.5. We’ll stay away from the Over here – that’s a lot of execution on both side of the ball that needs to happen and it’s only the third week of the year.
Plus, both teams might come out cautious with so much on the line already.
The line movement is worth watching. Ole Miss initially opened as a slight favorite in some early markets, but public money piled into LSU.
That shift tells us the market respects LSU’s overall roster and Kiffin too (ok, maybe “respect” is too strong). They think he can coach them up and has enough inside knowledge of the Rebels program.
Why LSU -3 is the Side to Play
Ole Miss is a bit tougher to get a read on since Pete Golding took over. They won their first two games in last year’s CFP before losing in the semifinal and they have two wins this year. That includes a squeaker against Louisville in Week 1, a 41-38 game that could have blown up their CFP chances with one play going the other way.
That didn’t inspire confidence for us when it comes to Ole Miss’ chances. LSU has the more complete roster with no obvious holes. Kiffin knowing the Rebels’ team inside and out. That has to be a big strategic advantage even though it’s a new coach, new playbook situation under Golding.
Ole Miss will have the home-field advantage, sure. It’s nothing the Tigers haven’t seen in the SEC meat grinder though. The Rebels also have enough speed to create problems, but this one comes down to the mismatch on defense between the two schools.
Ole Miss finished last season just 48th in the country total yards allowed. And LSU can turn any game into a track meet.
How to Get More Value from LSU
The 51 points that the Tigers hung on #11 Clemson in Week 1 is all the evidence you need. If this game loosens up in the second and third quarters and becomes a back-and-forth shootout, LSU can dominate. And if it turns into a field-position battle late, the Tigers’ D can hold the line. They finished last year 23rd in points allowed, a position they will almost definitely beat this year.
Louisiana State had the consensus #1 transfer portal haul in all of college football heading into the 2026 NCAAF season. Mostly on D too. Princewill Umanmielen is an A-lister and he’ll give Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss headaches all day. Same with Jordan Ross, and the list goes on.
That’s telling us to give the alternate lines a look. Taking the standard -3 points higher to -5 pays +125 instead of -108. At either amount, you still need a TD to cash if you like LSU to cover, so go with the bigger payday.
We’re less confident in making the O/U call. That 58.5 total means a lot has to go right for both sides. Sure, Sam Leavitt looks like he’s been a Tiger his whole career instead of being the top offensive portal player this offseason. And Chambliss is making a run at the Heisman this year. Last year’s game was a tight 24-19 Ole Miss win though, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a similarly tight playbook this time around. Too much at stake.
Best Bets for NCAAF Week 3
We’re looking at #22 Houston against #13 Texas Tech as one of the other highlights of the weekend, along with #10 Alabama against FSU.
Houston vs. TTU has the Red Raiders favored by 7.5 points. This is an interstate rivalry though, between two undefeated teams. These games can run tight, so we like the Cougars to cover and that 53.5 total to go Under.
The Crimson Tide look tough as always, but Week 3 can still be a shaky one even for the big programs. The Seminoles are a program in turmoil, with boos from the home fans in a loss against SMU and the firing of their AD. They are coming off a bye, though, and that might give them enough time to stay within the 3-TD, +20.5-point spread they’ve been given. Don’t bet this in Week 7 or 8, but this early in the year big spreads are more vulnerable.