Preview the official kickoff of the FBS Season featuring TCU vs North Carolina in Dublin, USC, and Florida State
College football and its weird Week 0 is officially back on Saturday.
With the full lineup of Week 1 NCAAF games still 9 days away, this weekend offers up some early betting opportunities. This time of year is great for the smart money to catch some mispriced college football odds. Start with your TCU vs. North Carolina picks. It could provide some of your CFB Week 0 best bets, with an overseas game, a different time zone, and a lot of variables up in the air for both sides.
There are a handful of other notable games on Saturday too, featuring USC and FSU.
The key for NCAA Week 0 ball is not forcing action on every game. There are too many unknowns even for sharps. Focus on the spots where the number and matchup and early-season conditions make sense to play.
TCU vs. North Carolina: Dublin Opens the Season
The FBS season starts at noon ET Saturday when TCU faces North Carolina at Aviva Stadium in Dublin. This is not your grandmother’s season opener. Overseas travel means altered routines. Unfamiliar surroundings and different patterns ahead of the game will throw some players off, even with a week to get used to the time zone change. Plus you’ve got the usual Week 0 rust that hits everyone, from #1 Ohio State to the smallest state schools.
It all makes this one harder to handicap than a typical Saturday game to start the NCAAF season. Top it all off with the rocky offseason for the Tar Heels and this stuff gets even more complicated.
TCU comes in as an 8.5-point favorite and the game has an O/U of 47.5.
That off-field drama that follows UNC coach Bill Belichick only seemed to ramp after his first shaky season at Chapel Hill. His GM Michael Lombardi was booted from the team and his DC (and son) Michael just went on indefinite medical leave.
On the field, the Horned Frogs went 9-4 last season, a solid record. They easily handled UNC 48-14 in Chapel Hill too.
That all contributes to that healthy spread, and even makes you wonder why it’s not much bigger.
Why The TCU-UNC Spread is Single Digits
NCAA football betting fans shouldn’t expect a carbon copy of last season’s game though. TCU has a new quarterback in Harvard transfer Jaden Craig. That can cause an adjustment period, especially in Week 0.
North Carolina enters Year 2 with a rebuilt roster and a fresh (but better) quarterback situation of its own. Belichick is still Belichick though, an A-list coach who no doubt spent the last 8+ months learning from last year’s rough start.
This should be a more competitive Tar Heels team. They added a massive 60 new players and new QB Billy Edwards Jr. brings legitimate experience. At Maryland in 2024, Edwards threw for 2,881 yards, completed 65% of his passes, and provided 22 total TDs.
The Horned Frogs do have the edge in part due to a veteran offensive line with 95 combined starts. That is a major edge in an opener, especially when a new quarterback is finding his game and rhythm.
The overall issue is whether all those new pieces can be ready immediately against a TCU defense that has more continuity. The Horned Frogs have the better numbers from last in terms of W-L record and some key offensive numbers, but UNC has enough new talent to make for a serious upgrade from last year’s team. Belichick inherited a lot of the 2025-26 players but this year it’s more his team.
Why the Under Is the Better Dublin Bet
The strongest play in TCU vs. North Carolina could be Under 47.5. The total is already on the low side by NCAAF standards, true, but there are reasons to expect a sluggish offensive start.
The new QB situation hits both teams. That usually means timing issues and a simplified early playbook. Both factors tell you that turnovers are more likely. There’s a bigger chance of drives stalling before they reach the red zone too.
The Dublin factor adds another layer. Teams have to adjust to the travel. Ireland’s not India, but it’s still 6 hours ahead of TCU and 5 ahead of UNC. Then you’ve got the game-week routine that is nowhere close to normal, including food. Plus you can’t discount the effect of 100+ 20-year-olds hitting a foreign country for a week of distractions. Coaches know that, too. Expect both sides to be careful early, and possibly the entire game.
USC vs. San Jose State: Careful with Big Favorites in Week 0
USC is the only ranked team on the Week 0 schedule. With that comes them being the favorite by a very large 39 points against San Jose State. The Trojans have the better athletes, the much higher seeding and the offensive upside to put up a number.
Laying 39 points in a season opener is a different kind of bet though. You’ll need almost everything to break your way. The Trojans will need to build a huge lead early and avoid turnovers or special-teams mistakes Both those last two factors are ramped up in Week 0, where every team is shaking off rust. They’ll also need to stay aggressive into the second half to keep up that spread of over 5 touchdowns.
Remember, each of the last two college football seasons have seen major Week 0 upsets. Forget the spread, these were outright Ls for the seeded teams. Georgia Tech took down the #10 Seminoles in ’24, and Iowa State beat #24 Kansas State a year ago.
The better angle is again the Under at 60.5. San Jose State will try to slow the game down and avoid turnovers that give USC a short field.
And if USC gets up big in the first half, the third and fourth quarters could be about backups and preserving starters for more serious opponents this fall. Not hunting for extra touchdowns.
Florida State vs. New Mexico State: Back the ‘Noles
Florida State hosts New Mexico State in the Saturday night game, laying 32 points with a total of 53.5. That spread isn’t as massive as the one TCU is facing, but it’s still over 4 converted TDs.
Same principles apply as the TCU-UNC game, just with fewer external factors. Why is FSU going to be tough to beat even with that healthy spread? They finished a weak 2-7 last season.
Just check out the run game, a key element early in the season while QBs and receivers work on their chemistry. FSU finished 22nd in the country in scoring last season. The addition of running back Quintrevion Wisner from Texas, running behind an offensive line with 106 combined career starts, is big. New Mexico State struggled badly against the run last season, allowing 165 rushing yards per game. The Seminoles can run the ball all day and control field position. That will wear down the front seven and create easier passing opportunities as the game develops.
Week 0 is about being selective. The season is back, everyone would love to get all those pent-up bets in, but not every game deserves a bet. Stick with the matchups that offer a clear path to value.