That 4–0 Team? It’s Been Covering… Until now. Week 5 Is Loaded with Teams Flying Too Close to the Number.
The Mirage of the Early Season ATS King
Regression. Happens to the best of us.
Hair thins. Stomachs expand. And teams that have covered every week in college football eventually don’t.
Week 5 ATS for NCAA football is a prime spot for those few remaining squads to finally miss the spread.
It’s called regression to the mean, formally.
In college football betting terms, it’s just gravity. Teams eventually need to come back to earth.
Take a good look at 3-0 and 4-0 ATS teams heading into this week’s games. There will be fewer of them come Monday. Which means Lucky Rebel players can use their skills to pick up some W’s.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Why the Line Gets Too Sharp
Streaks are fun to follow in every sport, no question.
And in college football, it’s hard not to jump on the bandwagon when a team is rattling off win after win against the spread. Oddsmakers can overcorrect based on ATS streaks though.
The hot team, who may have had too tight a spread in earlier games but kept beating up their opponents, is now valued – or even over-valued – closer to their true strength.
Plus, the books now have 4 solid weeks of on-the-field data to work from. More data = more accurate spreads.
Public Money Loves a Winner
Everybody loves a winner. The public instinct – in football just like in stocks – rushes to where all the news is.
If Alabama, Florida, or Ohio State are riding high ATS all season, you’ll start hearing about it leading up to Week 5’s NCAA games.
Sharps know this: Backing hot ATS teams after multiple consecutive covers is often a losing play. It’s time to fade them in Week 5, while the rest of the market is just waking up to how “hot” they are.
The value has largely disappeared by Week 5.
Crash Examples
Just last season, Alabama entered Week 5 at 3-1 ATS. (Their only loss to the spread was a game in which they won by 26 and the spread was 30.5, so we can count that as a pretty damn close to an ATS win).
Their opponent was Vanderbilt, and ‘Bama was favored by 23.5. And the Crimson Tide were coming off a huge W over Georgia the week before.
Regression, gravity, letdown, life, whatever you call it happened next.
The home team, Vandy, shocked the nation by winning outright, 40-35. Alabama failed to cover, but you can bet a number of sharps sniped the crash perfectly.
Tennessee was another prime example last season. After ripping off huge wins, all covers, the first 4 weeks, they entered Razorback country.
Arkansas, an SEC rival, got up for the Volunteers, who were 14-point favorites. They won outright by points too.
That’s two prime examples of road underdogs taking down streaking ATS teams in Week 5.
How to Identify a Sell Spot
Sell spots are those ideal moments to fade teams that the public and the books are hyping up too much.
The metrics you need to use? Grab a shovel.
You need to go a bit deeper into the NCAA football stats to get value, now that the Sportsbooks are sharper.
The good news? You also have more data to work from, compared to the early part of the season.
Metrics to look for:
- Turnover margins.
Some teams might be rocking a 4-0 ATS record but they might have some defensive TDs or special teams scores that added to their point spread differential. The bounces even out at some point, so they can’t rely on this extra scoring forever. - Home and Away ATS records.
The hyped up darlings of the NCAA might just be really fond of home cooking. The second they hit the road and face a rabid opposing fan base, not to mention noise that affects snap counts and creates turnovers, the spread might not go their way. - Success Rates.
Sure, this is one of the newer metrics brought to us by the stats geeks. You know, the “NextGen Stats” crap. We go a little more old school.
But some of them are actually useful. And we’re not going to stay away from stats that give us an edge.
Look for teams riding high on above-average third down success rates, or abnormally high red zone conversion rates. These are not sustainable and can be even fluky. A leading defense won’t put up with either of these high success rates.
Matchup red flags are another warning sign.
Maybe the hot team’s only weak spot is their secondary, and they haven’t faced a good passing team yet. Until this weekend, when the leading Heisman trophy candidate is coming to town.
Or they’ve run all over leaky defenses till now, but a hungry Top 10 defense is looming against them in Week 5. Line movement is worth watching for. After a steady week spread-wise, the lines moves 1-2 points away from the hot team.
Could be sharp money fading them. Success leaves clues, says Tony Robbins.
Don’t Bet on the Streak – Bet on the Spot
Lucky Rebel players know to avoid betting trends and teams’ hot streaks.
But just in case, it’s worth repeating: By college football’s Week 5, lines offer less value. Look in the opposite direction of mainstream bettors.
Evaluate every game on its own merits. Consider quality underdogs that are due for a W. Know that teams on ATS streaks eventually need to come back to earth. Even consider being more selective this week.
With lines dialled in, and fewer surprises to be found, sharps stay away from some games that feature hot teams completely, knowing the value isn’t there.
They focus on other games and bet the spot.