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Alabama Crimson Tide
Odds
Next game odds, CFP outlook, schedule and bowl history.
Alabama are the fifth favourite to win their own conference. Read that again.
Texas, Georgia, LSU and Texas A&M are all shorter than the Crimson Tide for the SEC title. Nationally it is worse: +2500 puts Alabama eleventh, behind Oklahoma, LSU and Texas A&M, level with an Ole Miss side that finished below them last year. For a programme that has been favourite for most of the last two decades, that is not a slump in form. It is a verdict on one position.
One hundred and sixty-four media voters put six Alabama players on the preseason All-SEC teams. Three made the first team. Not one is a quarterback, because Austin Mack and Keelon Russell are still competing for the job.
You can now bet on how that ends. Mack is -150 to take the first snap against East Carolina, Russell +115. That is the whole season priced in two numbers, and it is closer than the futures market below would have you believe.
Week 1: Alabama vs East Carolina
| Sat 5 Sep · Bryant-Denny | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | -28.5 (-103) | -1000 | u 54.5 (-108) |
| East Carolina | +28.5 (-117) | +2200 | o 54.5 (-112) |
-1000 implies a 90.9% chance of an Alabama win. Prices move on team news.
The number to watch here is not the spread. It is the team sheet. Whoever takes the first snap against East Carolina settles the market below and moves both futures prices with it, inside the hour. -1000 on the game is the least interesting number on this page.
Who Starts at Quarterback
| Starting QB, Game 1 | Price | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Mack #10 | -150 | 60.0% |
| Keelon Russell #12 | +115 | 46.5% |
Implied probability before margin. Back a starting quarterback →
Those two add to 106.5%. Take the margin out and it is 56% Mack, 44% Russell. That is not a settled competition being formally priced. That is a book telling you it does not know either.
Mack is the senior, a Washington transfer who followed Kalen DeBoer to Tuscaloosa and has played SEC football. Russell is the sophomore and the higher ceiling. The case for the favourite is experience in a season where Alabama open against Georgia in Week 6 and cannot afford a learning curve. The case against is that -150 is a short price on a quarterback nobody has separated from a sophomore in eight months of practice.
Two other SEC jobs are priced the same way. Florida is line-for-line identical, Aaron Philo -150 and Tramell Jones Jr. +115. Tennessee is not close, Faizon Brandon -250 against George MacIntyre at +185.
Alabama SEC Championship Odds
| SEC Championship | Price | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | +280 | 26.3% |
| Georgia | +350 | 22.2% |
| LSU | +700 | 12.5% |
| Texas A&M | +825 | 10.8% |
| Alabama | +850 | 10.5% |
| Ole Miss | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Oklahoma | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Florida | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Tennessee | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Missouri | +3000 | 3.2% |
| Auburn | +4000 | 2.4% |
| South Carolina | +5500 | 1.8% |
| Vanderbilt | +8000 | 1.2% |
| Kentucky | +15000 | 0.7% |
| Arkansas | +20000 | 0.5% |
| Mississippi State | +20000 | 0.5% |
Implied probability before margin. See all 16 SEC Championship prices and bet →
The gap between Alabama at 10.5% and Texas A&M at 10.8% is nothing. The gap between both and Georgia at 22.2% is the season. Worth noting the media and the market disagree here: the preseason poll made Georgia the predicted conference champion, but the book has Texas shortest at +280.
Alabama National Championship Odds
| National Championship | Price | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | +600 | 14.3% |
| Notre Dame | +700 | 12.5% |
| Texas | +775 | 11.4% |
| Oregon | +800 | 11.1% |
| Georgia | +900 | 10.0% |
| Indiana | +900 | 10.0% |
| Miami FL | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Oklahoma | +2000 | 4.8% |
| LSU | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Texas A&M | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Alabama | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Ole Miss | +2500 | 3.8% |
Full National Championship market, all teams →
Our Call
Before these prices published, we said Alabama would open shorter than they deserved. They have not. The market has priced the quarterback question harder than we expected, and our read was wrong.
|
Lucky Rebel call
+2500 for the national title is the value, and it is value created by an overcorrection. The market has fully priced the quarterback uncertainty and has not priced the defence. Alabama have two first-team All-SEC defensive backs in Bray Hubbard and Zabien Brown, plus Yhonzae Pierre and Keon Sabb on the third team. That is four of six selections on one side of the ball. In a twelve-team playoff, a defence that travels gets you into the field even with an ordinary offence, and Kalen DeBoer has gone 12-2, 9-4 and 11-4 in his last three seasons on a 77% career win rate. What kills it: if neither quarterback separates by the Georgia game in Week 6, the October run of Georgia at home then Tennessee away ends the season before November. That is the risk you are being paid +2500 to take. A 56-44 quarterback market five weeks out is the market agreeing that the risk is real. |
Three Games That Decide It
Georgia, Week 6, Bryant-Denny. Georgia put twelve players on the preseason All-SEC teams, more than anyone, and are +350 for the conference against Alabama’s +850. Win this at home and both prices above shorten hard.
Tennessee, Week 7, Neyland. The week after Georgia, on the road, in front of 100,000, against a defence now run by Jim Knowles. Back-to-back against ranked opposition with the road trip second is where seasons quietly end, and fatigue is chronically underpriced.
LSU, Week 10, Tiger Stadium. Lane Kiffin’s first season in Baton Rouge, at night, with first-team All-SEC linebacker Whit Weeks. LSU are +700 for the conference, shorter than Alabama. Hardest of the five road games, straight out of the bye.
See Alabama’s full thirteen-week schedule →
Players Who Move the Numbers
| Player | Pos | Class | Preseason All-SEC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Coleman-Williams #1 | WR | Jr. | First team |
| Bray Hubbard #18 | DB | Sr. | First team |
| Zabien Brown #2 | DB | Jr. | First team |
| Michael Carroll | OL | — | Second team |
| Yhonzae Pierre | LB | — | Third team |
| Keon Sabb | DB | 5th | Third team |
Austin Mack (#10, Sr., Washington) and Keelon Russell (#12, So.) are the quarterbacks. Neither made any of the three teams. Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss took the first-team spot and Texas’s Arch Manning was only second, so the voters were not simply backing reputation.
Gambling should be entertaining. You always risk losing the money you bet. Never spend more than you can afford to lose. If you think you may have a problem, visit luckyrebel.la/responsible-gaming. 18+ only. Lucky Rebel is licensed by the Office of Mwali International Services Authority under the Gaming and Gambling Act, 2022. Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change. Starting quarterback market prices correct at time of publication and subject to change. Player data verified against rolltide.com, 3 August 2026. Preseason All-SEC teams announced by the Southeastern Conference, 24 July 2026.