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Texas Longhorns
Odds
Next game odds, CFP outlook, schedule and bowl history.
Texas is favorite to win the SEC. Texas was the consensus preseason number one last year and missed the playoff.
At +280 the Longhorns imply 26.3 percent, clear of Georgia at +350 and more than double Texas A&M. The media went the other way and made Georgia the predicted champion, 88 votes to 57. Both sides have a record worth knowing about. That poll has correctly called the SEC champion ten times since 1992. The market had Texas top of the country twelve months ago, and losses to Ohio State, Florida and Georgia left them 12th and out.
Eleven Longhorns made the preseason All-SEC teams, twelve selections in total because Ryan Niblett was named twice. Five made the first team, more than any school except Georgia. Arch Manning was not one of them. He is the second-team quarterback for the second year running, and that is the tension this whole page is about.
Week 1: Texas vs Texas State
| Sat 5 Sep · DKR-Texas Memorial | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State | +30.5 (-110) | +2500 | o 59.5 (-112) |
| Texas | -30.5 (-110) | -10000 | u 59.5 (-108) |
Kickoff 2:30 p.m. local, on ESPN. -10000 implies a 99.0% chance of a Texas win. Prices move on team news.
First meeting since 1930, when Texas won 36-0 and the opponent was called Southwest Texas State Teachers College. Texas State arrives as a member of the rebuilt Pac-12. Nobody is betting this game on merit. They are betting it to see what the offense looks like seven days before Ohio State.
Texas SEC Championship Odds
| SEC Championship | Price | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | +280 | 26.3% |
| Georgia | +350 | 22.2% |
| LSU | +700 | 12.5% |
| Texas A&M | +825 | 10.8% |
| Alabama | +850 | 10.5% |
| Ole Miss | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Oklahoma | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Florida | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Tennessee | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Missouri | +3000 | 3.2% |
| Auburn | +4000 | 2.4% |
| South Carolina | +5500 | 1.8% |
| Vanderbilt | +8000 | 1.2% |
| Kentucky | +15000 | 0.7% |
| Arkansas | +20000 | 0.5% |
| Mississippi State | +20000 | 0.5% |
Implied probability before margin. See all 16 SEC Championship prices and bet →
Four points of implied probability separate Texas from Georgia, and the two of them are projected to meet in Atlanta on 5 December. Everything below LSU at 12.5 percent is a different conversation. The drop from Ole Miss at 9.1 percent to Florida at 4.8 percent is where the league splits in two.
Texas National Championship Odds
| National Championship | Price | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | +600 | 14.3% |
| Notre Dame | +700 | 12.5% |
| Texas | +775 | 11.4% |
| Oregon | +800 | 11.1% |
| Georgia | +900 | 10.0% |
| Indiana | +900 | 10.0% |
| Miami FL | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Oklahoma | +2000 | 4.8% |
| LSU | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Texas A&M | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Alabama | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Ole Miss | +2500 | 3.8% |
Full National Championship market, all teams →
Ohio State is +600 and comes to Austin in Week 2. Beat them and this number is gone by the Sunday. Lose and Texas is chasing an at-large place in a twelve-team field with a nonconference defeat already on the sheet, which is exactly where last season went wrong.
Our Call
The obvious move is to back the favorite and point at the roster. We are not going to. Not without saying what happened the last time this market felt this certain.
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Lucky Rebel call
Texas at +280 for the SEC is a fair price, not a bet. The national +775 is the one we would leave alone. The roster case is real. Five first-team All-SEC selections, Colin Simmons off the edge, Cam Coleman and Trevor Goosby on the first team offense, and Steve Sarkisian going 12-2, 13-3 and 10-3 in his last three seasons with Will Muschamp now in year four running the defense. Seven home games. The bye lands before the Red River Rivalry rather than after it. On paper this is the friendliest schedule of any SEC favorite. What stops us going further: at +280 you are paid 2.8 to 1 on a team the market already agrees with, and this is the same market that made Texas preseason number one before a 10-3 season. Two of the three sides that beat them last year are back on the schedule. The value in this league is not on the favorite. It is on whoever beats Ohio State in September and is still priced as though they might not. |
Three Games That Decide It
Ohio State, 12 September, DKR. Third straight season these two have met and Ohio State has won the last one. They are the shortest price in the country at +600. Texas gets them at home this time, in Week 2, before anyone knows what either team is. The whole season is priced off this result.
Florida, 17 October, DKR. The least glamorous game on this list and the one that ended last season. Florida is +2000 for the conference and beat Texas in 2025. Getting them at home a week after the Red River Rivalry is the classic look-ahead trap.
Texas A&M, 27 November, Kyle Field. Black Friday, on the road, to close the regular season. A&M is fourth in the market at +825 and rising. If the conference race is still alive in the final week, it ends here.
The one nobody is talking about is Tennessee on 26 September. It is the SEC opener and the first trip Texas has ever made to Neyland.
See the full Texas regular season schedule →
Players Who Move the Numbers
| Player | Pos | Class | Preseason All-SEC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Coleman | WR | Jr. | First team |
| Trevor Goosby | OT | Jr. | First team |
| Colin Simmons #1 | EDGE | Jr. | First team |
| Rasheem Biles | LB | Sr. | First team |
| Ryan Niblett | KR/PR | Jr. | First team |
| Arch Manning #16 | QB | Jr. | Second team |
| Trey Dubuc | LS | — | Second team |
| Ryan Wingo #1 | WR | Jr. | Third team |
| Brandon Baker | OL | — | Third team |
| Jelani McDonald | S | — | Third team |
Ryan Niblett is on there twice, first team as a return specialist and second team all-purpose, which is how eleven players produce twelve selections. Manning was second team behind Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, a year after being third team behind LaNorris Sellers and Garrett Nussmeier. Two seasons as the most discussed quarterback in the sport and the voters have still never made him their first choice.
Gambling should be entertaining. You always risk losing the money you bet. Never spend more than you can afford to lose. If you think you may have a problem, visit luckyrebel.la/responsible-gaming. 18+ only. Lucky Rebel is licensed by the Office of Mwali International Services Authority under the Gaming and Gambling Act, 2022. Odds correct at time of publication and subject to change. Player and coaching records verified against texaslonghorns.com, 3 August 2026. Schedule from the Texas Athletics 2026 schedule release. Preseason All-SEC teams and media poll announced by the Southeastern Conference, 24 July 2026.