The NFL Playoffs get one step closer to the Super Bowl.
New England Patriots (-245) @ Denver Broncos (+195)
Heading into the 2025-26 NFL season, none of us had Jarrett Stidham on our AFC Conference Championship bingo card.
But NFL betting fans suddenly need to factor in the Denver backup when making their picks for the Patriots-Broncos game, with the winner headed to the Super Bowl in just over two weeks.
Is Stidham that much of a drop-off from Bo Nix? With Nix, this game gets a tight spread of 1-1.5 points on either side. Without him, the oddsmakers are giving the underdog Broncos an extra 4-5 points.
While NFL bettors have a full NFL regular season’s worth of data to evaluate all the other players on the field, Stidham is the ultimate unknown for this one. He’s only had four career starts, sure. But he’s thrown for over 215 yards and a TD in each of them. Playing for the Raiders a couple of years ago, he put up 3 TDs and 365 yards in a game against the 49ers. In short, don’t automatically fade the Broncos just because of their backup QB. They’ll mostly keep him clean too. Denver allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL this season.
While the Broncos’ D is one of the league’s best, finishing third in the NFL in points allowed during the season, it just looks like too much bad luck is stacking up against them. Stidham will likely be taking snaps from the team’s 3rd-string center, and he’s likely going to play without two starting receivers in Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant.
Can the Pats capitalize on the Broncos’ injuries and shaky QB situation?
While New England quarterback Drake Maye has looked like a possible NFL MVP all season long, his playoffs games so far this year haven’t exactly lit up the talk shows or social media. Mayes’ completion percentage is just 58.9 in his two playoff starts this year, and he’s thrown for two picks. He’s also led the team to an average of just 21 points per game this month, over a full TD under their season average. None of those numbers should give NFL bettors much confidence now that Maye’s facing the strong Denver defense.
New England’s X-factor, and a good candidate for receiving and scoring props? RB Rhamondre Stevenson. Maye likes the short screens with Stevenson, and with the cold and possible snow in Denver, the short passing game could be NE’s go-to. Stevenson has 7 catches in the Pats’ two playoff games so far.
If you’re looking at longer trends, the Patriots have a stellar 8-0 away record from the regular season going for them. How much they get rattled by the Mile High crowd is anyone’s guess, but they know how to win on the road and the cold won’t be a factor for them.
Check the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
Los Angeles Rams (+123) @ Seattle Seahawks (-150)
Betting on the NFC Conference Championship game between the Rams and the Seahawks means you can make a solid argument for both teams.
With the current spread at -2.5 for Seattle, look for possible line movement closer to kickoff as the Rams have all the marquee talent on their side. The public money will love that LA quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Puka Nacua are getting MVP mentions, while the sharps know that Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were quietly getting it done for the Seahawks all season.
But while both offenses can put up points, it’s the Seahawks’ D that’s giving them the edge.
Take out that barn-burner game against the Rams in mid-December, and Seattle has given up an average of just 9.7 points in their last 7 games, including last weekend’s 41-6 Divisional Round blowout against the 49ers.
All that has added up to an 8-game win streak for Seattle heading into this weekend’s game, the definition of peaking at the right time to make a Super Bowl run.
Stafford, meanwhile, is doing the opposite of peaking. He was the leading NFL MVP candidate for most of the regular season, but the 37-year-old veteran Rams’ QB is throwing for just 1.5 TDs and a 52% completion rate in their two playoff games so far. Age, a long season, and a travel grind since Week 16 that has put over 16,000 miles on his body could all be adding up at the wrong time. Add in the fact that Seattle led the NFL in pressure rate this season and it could be a long day for Stafford and the Rams.
Does this all mean it’s an easy cover for the Seahawks? Not if this season’s two head-to-head games mean anything. LA won the first meeting by just two points, and Seattle took the second one by a single point. The home team won each game, which works in the Seahawks’ favor this weekend.
And then there’s Nacua. With the Seahawks intense pressure, Stafford will look to get rid of the ball fast. Nacua, the league’s leading receiver, can line up anywhere, including the slot. If he gets going early, that will open up some potential deep balls for Davante Adams. With all the attention on Nacua, Adams should be a solid play for player props when it comes to catches and at least one touchdown.
Before last weekend, Lumen Field last played a playoff game in front of their home fans in 2017, so expect one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL to go completely nuts as they release some more pent-up noise. That could swing a couple of offsides and delay of game penalties Seattle’s way, enough to make the difference if it’s close in the fourth quarter.
That also could add up to a solid contrarian play. While everyone is looking at the December matchup between LA and Seattle that resulted in 75 total points as a signal to run with the points, remember: it’s the playoffs. A trip to the Super Bowl is on the line. Teams normally tighten up in playoff time, drop balls, and take fewer chances. Factor in that crowd noise, plus January weather conditions in the Pacific Northwest and the suffocating Seahawks’ defense, and we like the Under.