The NFL Playoffs get one step closer to the Super Bowl.
Buffalo Bills (-103) @ Denver Broncos (-118)
The oddsmakers are pricing the Bills-Broncos Divisional Round game as tight as it can get.
With a 1-point spread currently in favor of the hosts, there’s virtually no daylight between Josh Allen and Bo Nix on paper.
But in terms of NFL playoff experience, there’s a big gap. Nix has one playoff game in his NFL career, a loss in last season’s 31-7 blowout against… the Bills. Allen has played 14 playoff games, almost a full season’s worth. And many are calling this Allen’s big shot, a year where his nemesis Patrick Mahomes is out, as are other elite AFC QBs Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson.
What does Denver have on its side? Rest, for one thing. They’ve had an extra week to heal up and game plan. Allen, on the other hand, got banged up last weekend. “Foot, finger, and knee” injuries were listed on his Tuesday injury report. Facing the NFL’s leading team when it comes to sacks won’t help much.
Home field matters more in Denver than almost anywhere else in the NFL, with the altitude really testing visiting players, especially as the game wears on. The cold will be less of an issue, since Buffalo is programmed to play in freezing temperatures.
If history matters, then it gets even tougher to go with the Bills. Allen is just 1-4 straight-up and ATS when he’s not playing in front of the Bills Mafia.
In a game this tight, it comes down to how much you value NFL playoff experience vs. defense, home field, and injury reports. Choose wisely.
Check the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
San Francisco 49ers (+270) @ Seattle Seahawks (-350)
The return of Brock Purdy saved the Niners’ season, and it may save them in the 49ers-Seahawks Divisional Round battle.
Purdy has been on fire since he came back for the final quarter of the NFL season, tossing for over 370 yards and 35 points per game.
Of course, Run CMC is his own force of nature. Even if Purdy doesn’t keep up those numbers against the Seahawks defense on a hostile, mid-January Seattle field, Christian McCaffrey can put the team on his back. Enough to overcome the league’s best team in points against this season? On a possibly wet, cold field, maybe not. And it’s been 9 years since Seattle fans have hosted a playoff game. They’ve got some noise saved up in what’s already one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL.
The big question mark here is regular season Sam Darnold vs. playoff Sam Darnold. That question will haunt NFL betting fans who are hovering over the Seattle button. Which one shows up? After last year’s stellar regular season, Darnold fell apart in the playoffs. He does have a better all-around team around him this year, starting with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a solid running attack with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. But that question will linger, enough for some to give the Niners the ATS edge at +7.5.
Houston Texans (+148) @ New England Patriots (-181)
The Pats gave up just 3 points in their NFL Wild Card game last weekend. The Texans allowed just 6 points in their win over the Steelers.
Time to smash the Under with an O/U for the Patriots-Texans game at 41 points? Possibly. All signs are pointing to a long day for both QBs.
New England comes into the game as 3.5-point favorites, but from what we’ve seen this season it’s the Drake Maye edge over CJ Stroud that pushes us towards a bigger cover by New England.
Especially if New England’s fast-improving defense gets to Stroud early and often. Stroud coughed up 3 turnovers against Pittsburgh last weekend, and New England’s D is equal if not better. They had 6 sacks overall in that Wild Card win. The turnovers that could come from pressure will give the Pats a shorter field to work with and let Maye use his NFL MVP-level arm and legs to get them into the end zone often enough.
Add to this the unfortunate injury to Houston’s elite WR Nico Collins, and points will be in short supply for the Texans in this one.
The one bright spot is that tenacious D for Houston. Maye was sacked 5 times last weekend himself, so unless NE coach Mike Vrabel can scheme his way to protecting Maye better, the 9th-best sack attack in the NFL this season could rattle the second-year star.
Home field pushes that New England edge even further. January in New England is no picnic. Houston, we may have a problem.
Los Angeles Rams (-204) @ Chicago Bears (+165)
The Rams-Bears game on Divisional Round weekend looks like the most exciting one from an offensive standpoint.
The Rams have the leading NFL MVP candidate, Matthew Stafford, still throwing darts at the age of 37. The Bears have Caleb Williams, in just his second year, getting better every week. Stafford led the NFL in passing yards this season, and Williams just tossed for 361 last weekend – including a 4th-and-18 completion that will go down as one of the best plays by a QB in a decade.
Williams is also playing above his second-year status late in games. The Bears have been down late in the 4th quarter seven times this season, and Williams has brought them to a W each time. You can’t discount that ability to handle pressure in the playoffs.
But… Stafford’s experience plus Puka Nacua and Davante Adams give the Rams that deserved 4.0-point edge. The Bears gave up 350+ yards to the Packers last week, and the Rams’ receiving duo is even more lethal.
If both QBs essentially cancel each other out stats-wise or because of the weather, the X factor could be Rams RB Kyren Williams. He was quietly the NFL’s 6th-leading rusher and he’ll be needed in the cold, passing-unfriendly Soldier Field. Look for him to get more touches than usual and look for his Over bets when it comes to player props, especially in bad weather.