Making NFL bets count this week
Dallas Cowboys (+146) @ Detroit Lions (-179)
The Cowboys-Lions game is like having the NFL Playoffs in the first week of December. Both teams absolutely have to come away with a W here. With nearly identical records, they would both miss out on the playoffs if they started today.
With the Lions, the NFL betting public didn’t picture them on the outside this late in the season. But they’re fading at the wrong time. For the Cowboys, not much was expected from them after the Micah Parsons trade, but they’re coming on strong in the past month.
So if you’re a momentum bettor, you’ll like the ‘Boys at +3.0 and +146. They’ve won 3 straight, with the last two W’s coming against both of last year’s Super Bowl teams.
Dallas has also gotten way better at stopping the run since adding Quinnen Williams, something that should give Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery props bettors a minute to re-consider.
But momentum goes the other way too. The Lions, since late 2022, are 13-1 ATS right after a loss. And after getting beat by the Packers last weekend, they could come into a raucous Ford Field on Thursday Night Football and move that to 14-1.
The game could be a shootout too, something that favors the Cowboys by just enough to cover. Dak Prescott is in the MVP discussion, they’re in the NFL in ppg, and they’re healthy. The same can’t be said about Detroit, who can light up the scoreboard with anyone normally, but they could be without WR Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Check the latest odds on Lucky Rebel.
Cincinnati Bengals (+200) @ Buffalo Bills (-255)
With Cincinnati still mathematically alive and Joe Burrow coming back early from injury, this Bengals-Bills battle will determine a lot for both teams’ playoff chances.
We’re also not sure which Bills team will show up. The one where Josh Allen accounts for 6 TDs and looks indestructible? Or the one that got thumped 30-13 by the Dolphins last month?
Their offense should roll against Cincy though, no matter which team shows up. The Bengals are almost historically bad on D and are currently last in total yards allowed per and points per game.
But if Burrow can look like he did last weekend in his return, putting up 32 against the Ravens, it could be a shootout with the last team to score as the winner. Either way, we like the Over if the weather looks playable.
Indianapolis Colts (-128) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+105)
The Jaguars are one of a handful of teams on this list who don’t quite look like their record. But before hitting a win streak against a handful of non-playoff teams, they did rattle off wins against KC, Houston, and San Francisco early in the season.
No matter which Jags team shows up, the Week 14 Colts-Jaguars game was not on anybody’s bingo card for late-season must-watch NFL games.
But now we’re looking at a battle of 8-4 teams that both have a shot at the AFC South title and a playoff spot.
The Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014, so that could be in their heads a bit. But on paper, they’re the more talented team. Jonathan Taylor keeps racking up the yardage at running back, and while Daniel Jones just revealed a recent cracked fibula that has slowed him down, Indy is still too talented to lose their third straight at this critical time of year.
This could be the week that the Jags get exposed as AFC South pretenders.
Chicago Bears (+250) @ Green Bay Packers (-320)
The Bears-Packers rivalry goes back over 100 years, the oldest in pro football. Chicago (then the Staleys) took their first game back in 1921, 20-0.
It’s going to be closer than that this weekend as both teams are in the hunt for the NFC North title. Chicago doesn’t quite look like the team that deserves the best record in the NFC, and the books are letting them know. As 6.5-point ‘dogs with a +250 moneyline, those are numbers that don’t reflect confidence in the top team in the NFC. That #1 seed they currently enjoy can drop to #7 with a loss here in Week 14.
It’s the run game that has Chicago at 9-3. Rookie head coach Ben Johnson has taken the ground attack he established in Detroit and brought it to the Windy City. Both Bears’ RBs, Kyle Monongai and D’Andre Swift, easily ran for over 100 yards each last weekend. And if the weather at Lambeau brings wind and cold, we could see 20+ carries from both this weekend.
Green Bay looked like a Super Bowl team earlier in the season and they’re sitting just a half a game back of Chicago even after some weak showings by Jordan Love in the past month. He threw for just 2 TDs in four games before hitting the end zone four times last weekend in a huge game against the Lions. Now he’s at home, and the Bears’ D is weaker than Detroit’s. Chicago is sitting at 25th in the NFL in points allowed per game. Watch that weather, which could slow down the Packers’ pass attack, but hitting player props for Packers’ receivers could be the move if conditions look good.
Houston Texans (+151) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-184)
Another do-or-die game is on tap for NFL Week 14 with the Chiefs-Texans matchup. KC needs it badly and they’re looking like the most desperate team in the AFC right now.
The oddsmakers still can’t quite quit the Chiefs and the Mahomes mystique, favoring them at -3.5. If you think they’re truly washed and the magic is gone, getting +163 for picking Houston is the way to go.
The numbers do back up the books a little, at least when it comes to history. Mahomes is still Mr. December, going 26-6 in his career over the final month of each season.
But the Texans don’t care about history. Their defense is playing lights out right now. Houston has won 5 of their last 6, holding four of those teams – including the Bills and the Colts – to under 20 points per game.
The Chiefs just aren’t chalk in December anymore, even if they need this one to hold onto any playoff hopes. It could be the Arrowhead crowd that makes a difference one more time, or maybe Mahomes’ December muscle memory, but the Texans will be coming to play too.