Christmas Day Games are Coming and Playoff Positions are up for Grabs.
Minnesota Vikings (+215) @ Detroit Lions (-275)
Detroit, one year removed from looking like a legit Super Bowl team, is now playing for its life on NFL Christmas Day.
The Lions are coming off a brutal loss to Pittsburgh last weekend and have to win their final two games to even have a shot at the postseason.
For the Vikings, that ship has sailed already. And with starting QB J.J. McCarthy getting hurt this past Sunday, it gives Detroit a much easier path towards landing that playoff spot. True, even with him, the Vikes aren’t a lock, but third-string QB Max Brosmer has looked dismal in his first few games this season.
As for the Lions, what happened to their run game? The Steelers held David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to just <checks notes> 15 yards rushing last weekend? Injuries to their O-line is the biggest concern, and a short week won’t give them enough time to get right.
The only bright spot is that Minnesota is only 24th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed this season, so Gibbs and Montgomery will have an easier time of it. They’ll need it too, because Minnesota is only giving up 169 ypg in the air, good for 3rd overall in the NFL.
But desperation + home crowd should push Detroit to covering comfortably in this latest Lions-Vikings battle.
Check the latest odds.
Dallas Cowboys (-310) @ Washington Commanders (+240)
The only reasons we’re including this Dallas-Washington game in our NFL Week 17 betting preview? A) It’s a Christmas Day game and B) NFL bettors will still be playing.
With both teams officially eliminated from the NFL Playoffs, there’s not much else riding here except pride. So we’ll keep it short.
The Cowboys mailed it in against the Chargers last weekend, barely pressuring Justin Herbert on their way to a 34-17 loss. The Commanders were actually leading 10-7 in their Week 16 game against Philadelphia until Marcus Mariota got hurt. That meant Washington was down to their 3rd-string QB, Josh Johnson. With Jayden Daniels out and now likely Mariota too, this could give the Cowboys’ D some much-needed confidence.
Watch the injury reports to see if Mariota has a shot at playing. If he’s out, you have to think Dak Prescott will win out over a 3rd-stringer, no matter how much both teams are looking ahead to the offseason already.
Seattle Seahawks (-335) @ Carolina Panthers (+260)
One of the biggest games of the weekend is in… Carolina?
Yes, the Panthers and Seahawks both want this one badly. Carolina absolutely needs it, while the Seahawks would really like to get a step closer to securing home field advantage in the NFL Playoffs.
Carolina could win the NFC South with a win here and a loss by the Bucs against Miami. Otherwise, they’re headed to a Week 18 do-or-die game against Tampa.
It’s Panthers’ QB Bryce Young who’s the X-factor here. He seems to play average ball when the stakes are low, but when the pressure is on – and it will be with Seattle’s elite defense – he steps up. Young leads the entire NFL with game-winning drives over the past two seasons.
If you think Young can step up again, consider the Panthers in this one with the home field edge and added motivation to take the next step.
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers
Is this the Backup Bowl?
This Packers-Ravens matchup has so many question marks that bettors will need to be glued to the injury reports all week. Watch for line movement (the lines are late because of the big unknowns) as the status for Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love, the starting QBs for both teams, is up in the air.
Problem is, both teams desperately need this game to have a shot at making the playoffs.
There’s not much difference between backup QBs Malik Willis and Tyler Huntley so you need to look deeper. We didn’t like the looks of Green Bay’s collapse against the Bears last weekend, but we could say the same for the Ravens in their loss to New England. So we go deeper.
Running back is where the edge is for the Ravens. We’re not betting against King Henry in late December, at home, in prime time. He’s a beast in the night games, with multiple-TD performances and game-changing runs. Even though Henry’s lost a step, he’s still averaging 118 yards from scrimmage playing at night this season.
The Packers have lost two straight, giving up 19 points in the second half last week against the Bears and 20 in the final two quarters against Denver the week before. We’re not liking that trend line against Henry this week.
Philadelphia Eagles (+107) @ Buffalo Bills (-130)
The Eagles-Bills game could have been a Super Bowl matchup last season. Both teams have shown some more weaknesses this year, but both still have a shot if they can string together some wins between now and February.
They’ve also been on the same up and down trajectory this year (mostly up though). That’s why the moneyline is so tight, and the spread is just -2.0 for the Bills.
We expect a strong bounce back game from Josh Allen this weekend. He’s expected to play after a foot injury against Cleveland last week. Allen had a rough one against the Browns, barely squeaking out a 23-20 win with only 130 yards passing. The Bills have clinched a playoff spot though, and they likely won’t catch the Patriots for top spot in the AFC East and a first-round bye. That could get them to take the foot off the gas for the next two weeks of the season.
Philly, meanwhile, has limped their way to clinching first in the NFC East, but nobody is expecting them to be the same team that won last year’s Super Bowl. They have won two in a row against the very soft Raiders and Commanders, but before that they were on a 3-game skid.
They’ll lean on their defense again in Buffalo this weekend. But watch for a possible breakout for Saquon Barkley on offense, plus some Over props with his name on them. He’s picked up 120+ yards in two of his three games, and he’s running against a Bills’ run defense that is 29th in the NFL.