Our Rebel expert breaks down what to look for in the Top 5 games of the week.
Washington Commanders (+158) @ Green Bay Packers (-195)
Both teams won their Week 1 games easily. The Commanders by 15 over the Giants, the Packers by 14 over the Lions.
The difference? Green Bay beat a Detroit Lions team that came within a hair of the Super Bowl last year, and still has all the same weapons.
Washington, on the other hand, beat a Giants squad that oddsmakers have near the bottom of the list when it comes to Super Bowl chances – check out the NFL Futures.
Still, at -3.5 for the Pack, the odds for this Commanders-Packers game seems priced right.
Jayden Daniels looked like his solid self. He handled the Giants’ strong pass rush, but he’s in for a bigger treat with Micah Parsons coming at him this weekend.
The X-factor here is the running of Jacory (Bill) Croskey-Merritt, the Commanders’ RB who averaged 8.2 yards per carry last weekend. But the books might be looking at the Packers’
7th-best run D from last season, and that was without Parsons. Expect some of the hype coming Croskey-Merritt’s way to pump up his running yardage props, and maybe consider the Under.
Buffalo Bills (-325) @ New York Jets (+245)
Last weekend’s top 2 fantasy QB’s meet up when the Bills play the Jets in Week 2.
Josh Allen led the Bills to that epic comeback win over the Ravens, while Justin Fields took the fight to the Steelers before losing in the final minute.
What does that mean for Week 2? Not much. It’s a division rivalry. Game could be tight.
The Bills are on many Super Bowl futures lists, and while the Jets looked like they definitely improved from last year, they’re just not in the same class.
We like the intangibles here more than the stats though. Yeah, sure, Allen is already a legend and is still in his prime.
But division rivals, with skilled players like Breece Hall and Garret Wilson coming to life after a bitter year under the Aaron Rodgers era, shouldn’t be underestimated.
Then there’s a letdown factor. The Bills’ win over the Ravens looked and felt like an AFC Championship battle. Can Buffalo really get up for a Week 2 opponent that finished with 8 fewer wins last year? Can their defence tighten up after allowing 40?
We smell a letdown + a whiff of looking past the Jets to a short week ahead with a Thursday Night Football game in Miami.
The current 6.5 points the Jets are getting deserve a close look. From here, that looks like value.
New York Giants (+212) @ Dallas Cowboys (-275)
The Cowboys did better than expected in their close Week 1 loss to Philly. They allowed only 3 points in the entire second half against a stacked Eagles offense.
The Giants, on the other hand… man. Looking early like a team that will need to pull things together in a hurry.
There’s already a QB controversy brewing, and with all the media attention in the Big Apple, it could get ugly. For now, they say Russell Wilson will get the start for the Cowboys-Giants game.
They returned 10 starters from last season on offence. Normally, that’s a good sign of stability in the early NFL season. But not when you only added Wilson at QB.
CeeDee Lamb won’t have as many crucial drops two weeks in a row. Russ isn’t going to re-discover his MVP form. Watch Dallas here, favored with a 6.0 spread at the moment.
The X-factor? Giants’ rookie QB Jaxson Dart impressed in training camp and they’re already calling for him from the stands. If he comes in and delivers in the second half, maybe the Giants keep it close in this division rivalry.
Philadelphia Eagles (-121) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-101)
This is what we’re talking about.
A Super Bowl rematch two weeks into the 2025 NFL season.
Oddsmakers are giving the Eagles-Chiefs odds the smallest of margins, close to even odds. Yeah, with names like Mahomes, Kelce, Hurts, and Barkley in the game, you know we might look away from where everyone else is looking. So with a 1-point spread, currently in favor of Philly, we like the leg of Chiefs’ kicker Harrison Butker to make the difference.
It’s not the flashiest pick. But smart money doesn’t care about flash. Just facts.
Butker is the second-most accurate kicker in NFL history. And he has 9 field goals in the Super Bowl, so Week 2 of the regular season is a cakewalk for him in terms of pressure.
The X factor is the loss of Xavier Worthy for this game. Mahomes might struggle to put up points against a Philly D that already has some tough corners. If he can’t get it going, the Eagles could do some damage.
Seattle Seahawks (+130) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-159)
The Seahawks-Steelers odds for their Week 2 battle give the edge to Aaron Rodgers having a redemption season.
Pittsburgh rolled the dice on the old enigma this offseason, and for Week 1 at least, it paid off. Rodgers tossed 4 TDs before helping put the Jets away by just getting into field position game-winning FG
The Seahawks threw their lot in with Sam Darnold, and their return is still TBD. Darnold managed only 150 yards passing against the Niners, and the Steelers’ D won’t be much more forgiving. The overall Seattle offence didn’t even manage to get 240 yards of total offence. Maybe losing DK Metcalf in his prime and only gaining Cooper Kupp (out of his prime) wasn’t the best move. Their D does have teeth though. Maybe the oddsmakers like the Seahawks’ defence too much? There’s just a 3-point spread in favor of the Steelers. Seems low, given the momentum in Steeltown combined with the lack of offensive chemistry on the Seattle side.
And then there’s the DK revenge factor. Look for Rodgers to target his WR1 often, so he can rack up the receptions and TDs against his old Seahawks teammates.