The top insights for the best NFL games this week
San Francisco 49ers (+265) @ Los Angeles Rams (-350)
Puka Nacua is making a serious run at the title of “best wide receiver in football”.
The Rams wide receiver has 42 catches already this season, tied for an NFL record. Given his 125 ypg output – and Matthew Stafford’s ageless arm – the Rams could be breaking out on Thursday night.
On the opposite side, the 49ers are a hospital ward of a team. Brock Purdy is again a question mark, and they have up to 5 receivers with different injuries. And Nick Bosa is done for the year, so he can’t bother Stafford like he normally would. With no receivers, and a running game that – despite a healthy Christian McCaffrey – is 28th in the league, it’s tough to see where the Niners can get an edge here.
The 49ers-Rams odds show a healthy -7.0 for the Rams. Normally that’s more than we’d like to see for a divisional rivalry, but sometimes the sheer number of injuries is too much.
Denver Broncos (+164) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-202)
Explain to us how a team that completed exactly ZERO passes in the second half of a game last week is still comfortably 4-0?
That’s Philadelphia. And for the Eagles-Broncos Week 5 matchup, it might not matter.
Sure, Denver just put up 500+ yards of offense against the Bengals. But that’s a Cincy team that has basically thrown in the towel on the season. This weekend Denver is facing the reigning Super Bowl champs. Before the cakewalk against the Bengals, Denver QB Bo Nix had thrown for over 200 yards just once, and in two of those games he didn’t manage to crack 180. On the Philly side, you have to figure Saquon is going to break out at some point this season. He’s too good. Regression to the upside has to be coming. Sharps know: when there’s no obvious reason for a performance to be way below average, that player is coming back up sooner than later.
Look for the Eagles to throw more AJ Brown’s way too. The last time he got no love was in Week 1, and he made them hear about it. In Weeks 2 and 3 Jalen Hurts targeted him 18 times. Whether Patrick Surtain, one the elite DB’s in the league, lets him catch them is another story.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+156) @ Seattle Seahawks (-192)
Wide receiver Chris Godwin is back in form while fellow wideout Emeka Egbuka is dominating in his rookie season for the Bucs. And Baker’s cooking in every game, with his latest 4th quarter comeback last weekend just coming up short.
All that is bad news against a team like the Seahawks who can’t keep the ball out of Mayfield’s hands for long, with a flat running game that leads the league in 0-yard runs.
The X factor this weekend’s Tampa vs. Seattle game is TB running back Bucky Irving’s injury. He was wearing a boot at Wednesday practice. He’ll likely be out and Rachaad White is in. You judge whether that changes the Bucs’ chances to beat the (pretty generous) +3.5 spread.
This could be a classic case of potentially over-thinking your bet. Even though Irving is an elite back, White’s production is solid and so is RB3 Sean Tucker’s. We think the drop-off will be minimal.
New England Patriots (+325) @ Buffalo Bills (-425)
The Pats and Tom Brady owned the Bills for a decade, but now the tables have turned (and broken – it’s Buffalo, remember). Even at +8.5, it’s tough to see any daylight for New England in this Sunday Night Football game.
In the last 10 Bills-Patriots meetings, all with Josh Allen dominating, New England has been outscored by nine points per game while losing seven of them. This season, Buffalo is averaging 33+ points per game. And while the Pats’ offense has some life to it with Drake Maye and a power running back duo, they’ve also given up 300+ yards to Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith. Neither will be mistaken for strong NFL MVP candidate Allen.
The only element in the Patriots’ favor is the divisional opponent factor. Games are almost always tighter between division enemies.
The X factor here could a smaller storyline: the return of Stefon Diggs to face his old team. The Pats’ receiver is a notoriously emotional player. He burned his bridges in Buffalo and might be looking to light up the Bills on Sunday Night Football just to prove a point. A garbage time TD from Diggs could help Buffalo cover.
Kansas City Chiefs (-195) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+159)
Is KC back?
The Kansas City-Jacksonville spread doesn’t make it seem that way. It’s currently just -3.5 for KC, which could provide value if the smart money is ahead of the curve when it comes to the Chiefs’ revival.
Yeah, maybe they are back. Mahomes has targets again in Tyquan Thornton and Xavier Worthy. He threw 4 TDs last weekend in a convincing 37-20 beatdown of the Ravens. And he can still extend drives with his running. He already has 2 rushing TDs and two games with 50+ yards.
Jacksonville is a surprising 3-1, which might be what’s tipping the scales for the books to stay cautious. But they lead the NFL in penalties on offense, and in a prime time battle of nerves between a Monday Night GOAT like Mahomes and a shaky Trevor Lawrence, it’s easy to see this game getting away from the Jags.
On top of that, while KC’s offense gets all the headlines, their D is a top 10 unit in points against.
Back to Mahomes. He has the Jags’ number too. His perfect 5-0 career record against them comes with 1500+ yards passing and 11 touchdowns. With the O/U at 46, that Over looks tempting and so do the Chiefs to cover.