The top insights for the best NFL games this week
Philadelphia Eagles (-400) @ New York Giants (+300)
What do we make of this Eagles team?
They completed exactly zero passes in the entire second half two weeks ago, and that lack of firepower cost them when they took their first L last weekend against Denver, 21-17. Philly had 4 straight punts in the second half of that game too, when they badly needed points.
Some relief might come with the Giants’ weak defense and secondary. Their DBs let the Saints’ Spencer Rattler put up a season-high 225 yards, and he wasn’t sacked once.
The Eagles-Giants odds could come down to what Giants’ QB Jaxson Dart can do in his third career start. If you think he’ll just keep improving – Dart doubled his number of completions from two weeks ago to last weekend – then he could keep the G-men close with his arm and his scrambling ability.
But if you think the rook might struggle in primetime against the defending Super Bowl champs (who are in real need of a get-right game), then lean Philly. Keep in mind Saquon hasn’t had a breakout game yet this year either…
Dallas Cowboys (-188) @ Carolina Panthers (+154)
Surprisingly low Week 6 odds for the Cowboys-Panthers moneyline, considering that the Dallas offense seems to be moving the ball at will against tougher defenses than Carolina’s.
Since Week 2, the Cowboys have scored a minimum of 31 points per game, and they’ve topped 40 twice. Even the loss of CeeDee Lamb hasn’t hurt. Dak is getting MVP chants – he’s #2 in yardage and #3 in passing TDs, and Javonte Williams has been reborn at running back.
The upsides for Carolina, besides their X factor below, is A) that both of their wins this season have come at home and B) their defense can sometimes lock it down, like they did in a 30-0 win over the Falcons recently.
The X factor here is Rico Dowdle. Not only is he coming off a monster week for the Panthers, racking up 206 yards against Miami, he’s got the revenge factor as he’s playing his old team that let him go. Add in the fact that Dallas only has the 23rd– best run defense in the NFL and they might be looking ahead at a tough division game next week against the Commanders, and maybe that moneyline isn’t so off after all.
Take a look at that O/U of 49.5 too. If it doesn’t move much higher, the Over could be the play with two teams that struggle on defense.
San Francisco 49ers (+110) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-133)
Another shootout possibility, with two teams that gave up a combined 730 yards passing last weekend.
The Bucs-Niners odds give the slight edge to Tampa. No question why: it’s Baker. The Bucs’ QB is never out of the game and in any close matchup in the 4th, you’ve got to give him the edge.
Mayfield just went 29-33 for 379 yards last weekend against the Seahawks. Every win this season for the 4-1 Bucs has come with 4th quarter heroics from the Tampa QB.
The 49ers QB situation is less solid, but Mac Jones has shown he can play at the elite level with close to 70% completion over his three games, plus 6 TDs and just one pick. Jones is looking to get the start while Brock Purdy continues to nurse an injury.
Who gets the ball last could be the way this game is decided. A spread of just 2 points? Bank on Baker, especially since the Bucs’ receivers are much healthier than San Francisco’s.
Buffalo Bills (-208) @ Atlanta Falcons (+169)
The Bills-Falcons game is a shot at redemption for Josh Allen and his team.
Buffalo is coming off its first loss of the season, a close one against the Patriots. So the Falcons make this a solid bounce-back opportunity. Or do they?
Atlanta is the toughest team in the NFL to get a read on. One week they’re easily beating the Vikings, the next week they’re taking a 30-0 spanking by the Panthers, only to follow that game up with a gritty win over the Commanders.
While Josh Allen is a slam-dunk over Michael Penix Jr, it’s a bad matchup for Buffalo on the ground. ATL is 6th in the league in rushing yards and they can eat up the clock to keep the ball out of Allen’s hands. The Buffalo D is giving up over 5 yards per carry, which is a rough 30th in the NFL. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier could dominate.
The Bills are favored by 4, but if you believe the Falcons could stop their week-to-week Jekyll and Hyde performance with a home crowd and Penix coming off a 300-yard game, this could be a solid upset where the Falcons beat the spread and maybe even take it SU.
Detroit Lions (+118) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-143)
What could have been last year’s Super Bowl matchup is on tap for a huge Monday Night Football battle in Week 6 of the NFL.
The Chiefs-Lions game still has all the big names on the field, but KC is not looking like the team that went 15-2 last season.
They just took another embarrassing loss after a pick-six by Mahomes and a defensive collapse that made Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars look good. At 2-3, they can’t afford many more L’s if they want to get back to the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl, so they’ll be hungry.
Problem is, Detroit’s not the team to play when you want to recover. They’re #1 in the NFL in points for, while KC just gave up 31 to Lawrence and Co.
The only X factors – and possibly the only reasons the oddsmakers are giving the 2.5-point edge to the Chiefs – are the home-field advantage (Lions’ QB Jared Goff is more comfortable in the Lions’ dome than outside in the elements) and the legend of Mahomes in primetime games. The Chiefs’ QB is an insane 91-25 in night games since he started his career.
Detroit’s offense is looking like a juggernaut, true. But Mahomes’ track record is tough to overlook.