The NFL Playoffs Kick off this Weekend with a Wide-Open Road to the Super Bowl.
Los Angeles Chargers (+170) @ New England Patriots (-210)
The Chargers-Patriots Wild Card matchup this weekend might have some casual bettors going with the brand name Pats by default. After a couple of decades of dominance, it feels programmed that New England will advance now that they’re back in the NFL playoffs. It helps that Drake Maye has been in the NFL MVP conversation for most of the season, with Mike Vrabel in the running for the Coach of the Year award too.
But is Maye/Vrabel really the new Brady/Belichick? We might want to hold judgment for a season or two. Remember, the Pats are one year removed from a 4-13 record. They had the softest schedule in the league this season and lost 3 games at home out of the four teams they played who were over .500 for the year.
The Chargers’ defence, meanwhile, showed some serious teeth this year and finished 9th in the league in points allowed. They also play the deep ball better than almost any other team in the NFL, shutting down plays of 20+ yards better than 30 other teams. These are the exact plays that Maye likes to make.
As for the old – and kind of legitimate – concern about warmer climate teams playing in cold weather? Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert played in plenty of garbage conditions at Oregon, so he shouldn’t be too fazed. He’s 14-6 road underdog ATS too.
Check the latest odds at lucky Rebel.
Los Angeles Rams (+420) @ Carolina Panthers (-585)
The Panthers are getting some love from the betting public and sports media, but with an 8-9 record on the season, they’re still down bad in the eyes of the books.
Their +11.0 spread is the biggest of all this weekend’s Wild Card games.
Still, they are a playoff team in this year of the most parity we’ve seen in the NFL in ages. Does the Rams-Panthers game deserve a double-digit ‘dog at home?
After all, it was just Week 13 where Carolina pulled off the upset 31-28 in Matthew Stafford’s worst game of the season. We’re not sure what to make of that hiccup, to be honest. Call it a lack of focus, an anomaly. Because these teams are on different trajectories.
LA finished first in the NFL in passing yards and points. The Panthers ended up at 26th and 27th in those same categories. Rams’ receiver Puka Nacua led the NFL with 129 catches, while Carolina finished 15th in the NFL in yards allowed per game.
It’s also Stafford’s 10th playoff game, which includes a Super Bowl win. Carolina’s Bryce Young is making his very first postseason start.
It all stacks up to one-sided moneyline odds and a big spread in favor of the Rams. If you’re looking to catch an edge, maybe – only maybe – a late-game garbage touchdown by the Panthers and their elite rookie WR Tetairoa McMillen could close the gap.
Green Bay Packers (-118) @ Chicago Bears (-103)
The tie-breaking chapter of this season’s Packer-Bears rivalry features one of the closest spreads of all the NFL Wild Card Weekend games, with Green Bay at -1.0.
And we get why the oddsmakers have it so close.
Who do you go with? A Bears team that looked to be peaking in time for the NFL Playoffs, only to lose their last two, including a game they really needed in the final week against Detroit?
Or a Packers team that is still rocked by injuries? Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft are still out. Josh Jacobs, Dontayvion Wicks, even backup QB Malik Willis might be ready but all are hobbling one way or another.
The good news for the Pack is that QB Jordan Love is confirmed to start after a few weeks out of action. The bad news is that the ball might be out of his hands for much of the game; the Windy City is looking to live up to its name with high winds and freezing temperatures forecasted for the game.
With the razor-thin line and a game that could come down to the run, the Bears get the edge with a strong 1-2 punch in running backs D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monongai, along with a more mobile QB in Caleb Williams and home field advantage.
Buffalo Bills (-113) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-108)
There’s a bit of a now-or-never feel to this Bills-Jaguars Wild Card game for Josh Allen.
With no Mahomes, no Burrow, no Jackson in the playoffs, Allen is ready to assume the top dog role after so many close calls in recent years.
The problem is, the Jaguars are rolling.
They haven’t lost since early November. Trevor Lawrence seems to have finally broken through. He’s actually outplayed Allen down the stretch, throwing 18 TDs in his last 7 games. Then again, some of those games came against the Jets, the Colts (twice), the Cardinals and the Titans.
The book says you go with the veteran QB over the unproven one every time, especially in a game with a 1.0 spread. While we like momentum and form to make the picks in a tight game, we’ll use that book and go with Allen to will his team to win.
Houston Texans (-168) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+138)
If Aaron Rodgers has any more playoff magic in his arm, it’ll need to come out this weekend.
The Steelers almost have no business even being in this AFC Wild Card game, after last week’s crazy finish against the Ravens. Houston is coming in strong, meanwhile, winning 9 straight. They’ll also give Rodgers a harder time than Baltimore did – the Texans’ defense finished 2nd in the NFL in points against, and 7th in sacks. They’ll be in Rodgers’ grill all day.
Texans’ QB CJ Stroud is surprisingly battle-tested for the playoffs too. They’ve gone to the AFC Divisional Round in each of the past two seasons, so don’t necessarily assume Rodgers’ experience outclasses Stroud’s.
Here’s a Texans-Steelers prop bet to watch for: DK Metcalf at +220 to score a touchdown. You know DK is coming in extra motivated after a two-game suspension for that fan altercation. And Aaron Rodgers is just the type to get it to him.
San Francisco 49ers (+188) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-235)
Brock Purdy has been crushing it since his return to action in recent weeks, and the 49ers-Eagles game could come down to whether he can keep it going in Philly’s hostile home.
The Eagles are somewhat surprising 5-point favorites for this Wild Card battle. They haven’t impressed many football fans this season, especially as the reigning Super Bowl champions.
Down the stretch (ignoring the meaningless Week 18 game), they played .500 ball and that included wins over the Raiders and the Commanders, plus a 13-12 yawner over the Bills.
The Eagles can grind the Niners down like they did the Bills, but Purdy and Christian McCaffrey are the exact type of weapons that can break through a stingy Eagles’ D. Purdy had 12 TDs in his Week 14-17 games, and McCaffrey is McCaffrey.
The X factor here could be Saquon Barkley. Philly’s elite RB had a subpar season, but he was picking up close to 5 yards per carry in his last 4 games before getting a rest in Week 18. If he gets back to his Super Bowl MVP form from last season, the Eagles could take this one just by keeping the ball out of the Niners’ hands.