The Seattle home-field advantage comes up against a big quarterback matchup and could affect player props too
Nice way to start the year, with a reboot of Super Bowl LX. Seattle Seahawks vs. the New England Patriots.
For your NFL kickoff game betting, this one has dozens of angles that might not be priced in yet. It’s early in the season, where current data is at a premium. Look for X-factors like Jadarian Price when it comes to Seahawks betting picks and player props.
The Patriots-Seahawks odds are moving every day, so grab the numbers you like when you see them.
Seattle Seahawks – Home Field Super Bowl Champs with an Asterisk
The Seahawks have the Patriots’ number, and not just since last February.
They’ve won 4 straight against New England, even dating back to the Brady/Belichick era. Some teams just have another team’s number.
This Week 1 Seahawks-Patriots matchup is priced maybe a little wider than you’d think for two Super Bowl teams though, with Seattle getting the -3.5 edge at home. Especially considering the Pats’ offseason moves, which we’ll get to below.
Seattle finished last year 14-3 before going all the way to hoist the Lombardi trophy, and they’ve got the loudest fans in the league ready to make Drake Maye and the Patriots uncomfortable from the opening snap.
Is Lumen Field and the whole 12th-man thing still real though? Over the past 6 years, the ‘Hawks have actually won more games on the road (58%) than at home (56%). Their home field advantage only ranks in the middle of the league.
This is part of the reason why they’re only laying 3.5 points against a team they beat easily last February.
New England Patriots – Drama in the Offseason
The Pats’ up-and-down NFL offseason is enough to confuse even the sharps.
Pros: adding AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs to give Drake Maye more ammo. Plus O-line help, a top rookie RB now going into his second year in TreVeyon Henderson, and a new edge rusher who can make some noise.
Cons: a head coach in Mike Vrabel who basically created an epic off-field soap opera.
Most football fans will assume that the on-field stuff matters way more, which it does. But Vrabel’s decision-making and the overall distraction of his saga could create some early-season jitters.
The Pats went on a 10-game heater last season and rode momentum all the way to the Super Bowl. Their NFL Futures number is +2000 to win it all this year, a disrepectful 9th in the league.
Expect a cautious, low-scoring start that plays well for first-half Under bets, while Maye and the Pats battle rust and the Seattle crowd. New England has enough talent on both sides of the ball to reel in the Seahawks in the second half and keep it close though.
Maye vs Darnold
Maye is now a legitimately elite QB in only his third season. He definitely got an upgrade in targets in the offseason too, adding Brown and Doubs to the receiving corps. Brown especially might go off, eager to shake off the chains that the Eagles put on him the last couple of seasons.
Adding those weapons might put Maye into another league altogether. He finished second in the NFL in MVP voting, and led the league in passer rating and completion percentage.
Sam Darnold, on the other hand, didn’t crack the MVP voting top-5 or lead in any major QB categories. He finished 5th in yardage but also had the third-most interceptions.
So on a straight numbers basis, Maye takes this one by a mile. He led New England to the NFL’s #3 offense last season. Look for Darnold and his props early in the game if you’re doing any live betting. He can get rattled early and those picks might start to add up. The Under with his O/U of 228.5 yards passing could be the play.
Player Props for Patriots-Seahawks
If you don’t like the spread or the moneyline, check out some player props.
Seattle lost A-lister Kenneth Walker III to free agency, so they used their first-round pick on Jadarian Price. He could be the X-factor in this one. The O/U for Price’s total rushing yards is a pretty modest 51.5 with the Under at -113 and the Over at -117. The books are playing it cautious before he can show everyone what he can do in the pros.
He is coming in cold, though. The Seahawks’, after losing Zach Charbonnet for at least the first 4 games of the season, decided to put Price in bubble wrap and didn’t give him a single carry in August. With the Patriots 6th-best rushing D last year, it’s an even tougher ask to have the rookie step up into the pros and have a breakout game.
Still with the offensive props, there’s no player in the league with as much to prove as AJ Brown. No one who needed a bigger change of scenery. Expect Vrabel to let him loose in this one, giving the ex-Eagle all the chances he needs to remake his image. That gives Brown an attractive +165 to score a touchdown. He’s also +180 to go over 80 yards receiving, a number that takes just a few of Maye’s excellent deep throws to get to.
On the other side of the ball, look for JSN as always. Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaged over 100 years a game last year, and he’s sitting at +145 to go 100+ for this season opening game. Don’t auto-bet that though; the Pats held him to just 27 yards in the Super Bowl, so they might have him figured out.