Week 1 matchups will have smart betting fans focus on starter playing time reports and line movements
Week 1 of NFL preseason action kicks off on Thursday, and as usual it comes with the big August asterisk with rosters still full of players who won’t be there in September.
Sharps know that NFL action in August can provide edges though, even with the bigger cast of characters that the casual fan won’t recognize. That means every bettor’s NFL preseason betting strategy has to look different that it will a month from now.
NFL preseason Week 1 odds can be as tough for the books to set as they are for fans to read. Moneyline bets are dicey. Totals, parlays and props are where to look.
How to Think About NFL Preseason Week 1
Week 1 is all about protecting proven starters, especially at QB.
At best, they’ll get a handful of reps to shake out the cobwebs. The most you’ll see of them during Week 1 is on the sidelines with a clipboard. The players fighting for roster spots are the ones who will determine your preseason betting strategy.
That changes how you bet it compared to the regular season, of course. First thing you want to do is to ignore last season’s record. Ignore the helmet too, and check the injury reports.
These are not games to overthink though. The most useful preseason information is usually sitting right in front of you. Media coverage of a team’s quarterback plans helps. So does tracking a few standout position players – they’ll probably see more snaps and can drive up point totals. You also want to look at the coaches’ preseason tendencies in previous seasons.
Some coaches want to instill a winning vibe right off the bat. They’ll scheme harder and let their top defensive players stay out longer than normal for an August game. Other coaches couldn’t care less about the scoreboard. They want to get out healthy, have a long look at some rookies that might be difference-makers, and otherwise move on to the next day of camp.
All that info is data though. It’s just not the regular season data that NFL bettors usually bank on.
Coaching and Spreads: Betting Tips for Preseason
This is the basic preseason formula for NFL betting fans looking for an edge when there’s no solid starting lineup:
- Bet quickly when a coach confirms a starting QB for the season. For this week, that could mean Kyler Murray sits out entirely. Starting QBs often don’t suit up for Week 1 of NFL preseason ball, and if they do they’re almost always done after the first quarter. Vikings’ coach Kevin McConnell just named Murray as this season’s QB1 over JJ McCarthy.
- Don’t chase a spread that has already moved through a key number. Say Cincinnati opens at -6.5 against Detroit, expecting both starting QBs to play at least a little. Then word comes out that Joe Burrow and the first-team offense will play, while Detroit will rest Jared Goff. The line jumps to Bengals -7.5. Taking -7.5 is not the same bet as taking anything from -4.5 to -6.5. At those numbers, Cincinnati can win comfortably without needing to dominate. At -7.5, you need the Bengals to clear a second scoring threshold in a game where most of the second half will be played by backups. A late Lions touchdown or field goal, or just a better overall lineup of B-listers, can turn that -7.5 into a losing ticket.
Watch the Clock Too
On top of shifting lines and personnel, knowing how to treat each half and even every quarter can help you score an edge in NFL preseason betting:
- Use first-half bets when the advantage is concentrated early. First-half bets let you operate more from real data than a full four quarters of preseason ball. More brand name starters will see action before halftime and then they’ll remove the pads for the night. That lets you pick based on Jahmyr Gibbs racking up a couple of first-half TDs compared to their RB3 or RB4 playing as an unknown in the second half.
- Treat every fourth quarter like a separate game. The difference between the first quarter of Week 1 of preseason NFL games and the fourth quarter is night and day. Casual fans might not even touch the 4th because it’s such a crapshoot personnel-wise. The smart money will act as if the final 15 minutes is its own game. If the favorite took a 20-3 lead by halftime and pull virtually everyone, watch the live betting number in the 4th. You might catch the underdog at a big number while their backups dominate, or at least grab the Over if the game is turning into a track meet.
Week 1 Players to Watch
For the Raiders and #1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza, this week is the first semi-real look at how he handles NFL-level pressure. Expect some potential fireworks and number from Mendoza while starting QB Kirk Cousins rests his old bones.
Speaking of old bones, Aaron Rodgers very likely won’t suit up for Pittsburgh at all. Not even against his old Packers team on Thursday night. It’s a matchup that NFL fans want to see, especially with Mike McCarthy also on the opposite sideline, but don’t base any bets on Rodgers seeing action.
A big potential betting edge comes in the Browns-Bears game on Sunday. Deshaun Watson will see snaps for the first time in a couple of years for the Browns, while the Bears’ defensive backfield is already shredded with injuries. If Watson looks good early, and if Shedeur Sanders steps in trying to make a statement, this could be a solid play for all kinds of pro-Browns bets.
NFL Preseason Trends
Since 2015, preseason results show that small underdogs in the +1 to +3 range have covered at a 60% rate. That’s a trend worth considering while you also check the lineups for Week 1.
Home field advantage also counts for way less than it does in the regular season. Road ‘dogs of +2.5 or less have gone 75-38 ATS over the past decade in the preseason.