Opening lines can be a trap for the NFL Week 1 betting crowd, but you don’t need to follow the herd.
We know you’ve spent the offseason reading the news and all the hottest takes.
The sportsbooks have been too though, and they’re ready to get the casual fan to bite.
It’s almost funny, how the market overreacts every year, and who gets paid because of it. You can almost set your watch to it.
The thing is, Week 1 is all over the place when it comes to action on the field. Some teams can be a huge surprise while others are a big letdown.
Sharps and Sportsbooks both know that early-season chaos isn’t just noise though – it’s an opportunity when it comes to opening lines.
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The Mirage of Week 1
Whether it’s some superstar rookie QB, last year’s Super Bowl winner, or a team that made a ton of moves in the offseason, opening lines are often set to get that emotional money, and it happens every single season.
Starving after 6+ months without NFL football, people eat up every sound bite, every little piece of NFL narratives. But when it comes to betting, we have to tune it out, let the spreads do the talking, and just listen.
Here’s what I’m talking about: Aaron Rodgers’ late signing in Pittsburgh made the Steelers an instant 3-point favorite heading into their Week 1 game against the New York Jets.
I know people might look at the signing and that line without even questioning things. Do we know how well Rodgers is going to learn the playbook after missing a ton of offseason work with his receivers? How’s he going to connect with DK Metcalf, who’s also new to Steeletown, plus all his other new targets?
I also know this: it could be last season all over again for people who eat up the hype. We saw it all heading into last year’s opening lines, where Rodgers started with so much noise – even getting the Jets some Super Bowl buzz. But then they went 2-6 in the first half of the season, and Rodgers did the drama thing, and the finger-pointing started. The coach even got canned.
And week after week in the early going, people bought it. But they lost 6 of 8 games ATS for the first half of the season, and I’ll bet people lost plenty of cash buying into the hype every week.
All this noise – across the league, not just this game – can create a Week 1 trap.
That 3-point edge for the Steelers vs the Jets could be an opening weekend mirage, just like it is for a bunch of games before any of us see who’s the real deal.
Who Takes the Bait?
Experienced bettors like to use a conservative approach to Week 1 of NFL betting. Casual bettors, though, dive in on all kinds of classic preseason spin.
Take last season, where the Bengals were -7.5 favorites heading into Week 1 against the Patriots, who were nobody’s favorite. Cincy had a healthy Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase was back in uniform.
But looking closer, we know that Chase missed all of training camp with a “hold-in” that seriously messed up the team’s chemistry and timing. The Pats kept it simple, forced 3 turnovers and ran for 170 yards, and they won outright.
Everyone thought they knew the Bengals were money, even before the first snap.
How the Book Sets the Trap
For that Bengals-Patriots game, just as an example, Sportsbooks were probably licking their chops.
They knew that the Bengals were getting all the love heading into the season. The key is to learn how to smell a trap when you see this much love before any real football has been played.
For the books, they could be adding points to the spread and catching more of that hype, where the true line would have reflected the Pats having a better shot than a big 7.5 points for a Week 1 game.
In this case, the Pats bettors beat the trap easily. Even a closer loss with a tighter (and more accurate) spread by the Patriots would have given their bettors a win.
Sportsbooks want you to be emotional in Week 1. They want you hyped. You want none of that noise.
Who Profits in Week 1?
Sharps do.
They look for lines that seem heavy on narrative or last season’s results.
In reality, I’ve seen Week 1 underdogs do pretty well, as most teams in the NFL are still working on getting their lineups set. I think a lot of offenses still need time to get their act together too, so it’s best to look for spreads that seem too big.
Since 2016, road underdogs have covered the spread 61% of the time. That’s enough of a trend for me to pick out solid value for a couple of games on the Week 1 schedule. That number gets even higher – something close to 70% – for the road underdog when it’s a divisional game.
Takeaway: Watch, Don’t React. Emotions are for the Tailgate.
Patience is key if you’re betting the NFL Week 1 schedule.
It is best to wait until late in the preseason to see if any injuries come up. You’ll also want to find out who won the starting QB job on teams where there’s been a battle in training camp.
My other main betting tip for Week 1 of every NFL season is scouting for value. I’ve seen lines set knowing that the “safe” favorites, teams that have had a couple years of success recently, will be picks that the regular bettors go for.
But we know where the edge is: where everyone else is overreacting.
I’ve seen teams get older and slower, and not be active enough in the offseason. Key players might be holding out, or they might have missed all of camp. I know picking the underdog in these cases often provides solid value.
I’ll be selective though, waiting for the dust to settle for a couple of weeks to see who’s really cooking before going all-in.