The NFL Playoff picture is wide open
Buffalo Bills (-280) @ Houston Texans (+220)
Will the Bills-Texans game finally bring football fans a decent Thursday Night Football game?
TNF has been Zzz this year but this game could be one the year’s best. Both teams are fighting for top spot in their respective divisions, and this game is a near-perfect matchup of strength vs. strength.
The Texas come into the game with the best defense in the NFL, allowing the fewest yards per game. Not to mention the #1 scoring defense, barely giving up more than 16 points per game. The Bills, meanwhile, have the #2 offense in the league, racking up close to 400 ypg.
Too close to call, right? “Defense wins championships” they say.
Sure, but we can’t in good conscience pick Davis Mills to out-QB Josh Allen. Allen is just too good. He’s coming off a 6-TD (3 rushing, 3 passing) performance last weekend. He sees that the AFC is wide open this season and knows it’s his time to take Buffalo into the Super Bowl.
And if the Texans’ excellent secondary manages to bottle up the Bills’ passing game, Buffalo can still hit them with James Cook, who’s second in the NFL in rushing yardage. While Houston RB Woody Marks has been a great find this year, he can’t compete against everything that Allen and Co. can throw at the Texans.
We think the Houston D is playoff-caliber. And this game could well go under the current O/U of 43.5 (Houston has gone under 7 times on their last 10 home games). But the Texans’ NFL odds can’t just be based on defense alone. They need to reliably put up points to keep pace with Buffalo. Expect a close game, but it’s one that Allen can take over at any time.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
Carolina Panthers (+270) @ San Francisco 49ers (-355)
Any guesses on which NFL quarterback is coming off a 448-yard passing performance last weekend?
Bonus points if you said Bryce Young (and we’re not sure we believe you). The Panthers’ up and down QB was definitely up for the Panthers’ OT win over the Falcons. And suddenly, Carolina is 2nd in the NFC South with a legitimate shot at the playoffs.
They’re coming into Levi’s Stadium (yeah, we still prefer Candlestick too) as one of the toughest teams to read for NFL betting fans. One week, they’re getting rocked 40-9 by Buffalo. A week later, they’re holding down the Packers for a win.
The Niners are following the same W-L-W-L pattern and are equally tough to read.
For this Panthers-49ers game though, we could be persuaded to lean Panthers. Even with Brock Purdy back, a 7-point spread seems big for a team that hasn’t shown it can hang on defense.
Coming off that massive passing performance, having an elite rookie WR in Tetairoa McMillan, and seeing Cards’ QB Jacoby Brissett rip a record 47 completions just last weekend against the 49ers’ secondary, Bryce Young should continue the Panthers’ streak of 3 straight covers on the road. With that big +270 on the moneyline for Carolina, the smart money might see some value there too.
Indianapolis Colts (+146) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-179)
As recently as last year – and for the decade before it – this game would have been a double-digit no-brainer spread for the Chiefs.
Times have changed.
Now KC is only favored by 3 in this latest Colts-Chiefs matchup, and even that seems generous for the Chiefs. It could have a lot to do with the brand name still having an impact on the betting public and the books. It’s Indy that is a full three games better than KC in the win column, 8-2 vs. 5-5. The Colts have the highest-scoring offense in the NFL, along with the best running back in Jonathan Taylor.
So why does KC have a 3-point edge? We’re not 100% sure, actually. They’re coming off one of their worst games of the season, a 22-19 loss to Denver. Patrick Mahomes had his worst game in years, missing open receivers, averaging just 6 yards per pass, getting sacked 3 times and throwing a pick.
It has to be the desperation factor. The Chiefs can’t lose any more games if they hope to sneak into the playoffs. Intense pressure is a time when Mahomes shines. If you think he still has that magic – and agree that Arrowhead in November is a tough spot for an indoor team like Indy – then maybe vibes and desperation will put them over the top.