History Shows Week 1 Favorites Fold and Underdogs Bite. Smart Bettors Wait, Then Strike.
Year after year, favorites stumble and underdogs pull off stunning upsets in Week 1 of the NFL regular season.
Sharps know you wait, observe, and strike – often when the crowd is looking the other way. Remember Clooney in that Ocean’s demolition scene in Vegas? Just like that.
Your best bet is to try to forget gut feelings and ignore hype. It’s all about spotting over-excited lines and narratives.
Here is what to look for so you can learn how to cash in on the chaos of Week 1.
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NFL Football Returns, and so do the Bad Bets
For experienced bettors, this is one of the best times of the year. As football fans and betting fans.
As a straight-up fan of the game, it’s about seeing the offseason moves play out, checking out the new draft class, and just all the familiar rituals.
It’s also where you can count on the lines being a bit off and then jumping on a few key bets. It’s a new season for Sportsbooks too, so while they know what they’re doing, they don’t always know which teams can deliver right away. The return of the NFL is where bad bets return too. I’ve seen the same pattern every year, with people getting too excited. And we all know excitement clouds judgment.
Trends Don’t Lie: Underdogs Hit
The numbers back this up too.
When playing the NFL Week 1 spreads, all you need to do is look at the recent history and then pick your spots.
Since 2019, there have been only 2 seasons where the Week 1 favorites have gone 9-7. All the rest are split or have seen the underdogs come out on top.
This time of year, even the best teams are still sorting out their offensive and defensive schemes. With the inflated spreads for the top teams from last season, you’ll get a solid shot at picking up a few ‘dogs that pay well. It usually means going against the crowd in a couple of games at least, but that’s where the money is. Everyone is amped up over the favorites and big signings over the summer, but NFL teams all come to play on Week 1. The underdogs know they’ve got a shot at the playoffs since everyone is at 0-0.
2021 was especially nuts. I wish I had snagged a few more bets, but no regrets and no emotions in betting, right? Underdogs covered the spread in 12 out of 16 games that year. That set the record for the most-ever ATS covers in NFL history.
Why Favorites Struggle Early
When you really look, it’s pretty basic. NFL favorites have a tougher time in Week 1 for a few simple reasons.
Teams overhaul a good chunk of their rosters every year, not to mention new coaches and staff. Aside from some of the core guys staying in place, it makes sense that the top teams aren’t that dominant coming out of the gate.
But people eat up the favorites and go nuts every season. They see names like Mahomes, Burrow, and Jackson, and go head-first into picking them. It almost doesn’t seem to matter who they’re up against. But roster rust is real, and pretty much all NFL teams have to develop chemistry with some new linemen or wide receivers. Those 10 starters’ snaps they take in the preseason don’t cut it.
Casual NFL betting fans don’t care though, they’re all in on the hype. And maybe the sportsbooks buy into it too, or they at least like to shade the lines to make the favorites look even stronger.
Sharp Strategy: Wait for Value
What sharps aren’t buying are those inflated lines, they’re taking the underdog in most cases.
The stats back them up too. They’ve beaten the spread in Week 1 close to 55% of the time over the last 5 seasons.
That makes Week 1 way more attractive than every other week, since the average over a season for underdogs to cover is less than 50%. And the bigger the ‘dogs, the bigger the payout when it hits.
Still, it’s best to wait for value instead of blindly picking every underdog. You’re looking for narratives heading into Week 1 that everyone’s buying into, and then seeing if you think the spread is too big. You should bet later in the week too, to see if the lines have moved to a number that looks more realistic, or if they’ve stayed inflated.
Plus, there are holdouts that might come back late or injuries in the final preseason game that we don’t like.
Once you’ve checked off these kind of boxes, you know there’s some value to be found in the schedule.
Check the Tapes
Just last season, all the money was on the Bengals in Week 1. They were as high as 8-point favorites over the Patriots, but the Pats won outright.
Two other underdogs won outright that same weekend, with the Cowboys taking down the Browns and the Steelers surprising the Falcons, after being 4.5-point ‘dogs.
I don’t think straight up underdog W’s are the way to go for betting, but even just correctly calling a handful of covers by the underdogs every Week 1 is worth it for me.
Week 1 Isn’t About What You Know- It’s About What You Don’t
NFL Week 1 is like the tip of the iceberg. You know what you can see, but the biggest unknown is below the surface.
How is the QB connecting with his new receivers? How many vets are back from last year’s lineup? How good is the new defensive coordinator? There’s just a ton of variables.
And on the betting side, I always remind myself that in Week 1 only, the lines are set by people who are operating from the knowledge of exactly zero games played yet.
That confidence creates opportunities. Be modest enough to know you don’t know a lot in Week 1, but confident enough that you can pick up some prime bets when you see them.
Keep this in mind, and then choose wisely: Early-season profits can set you up for the entire 18-week schedule.