You Remember the Bad Beats. Let’s Replay Those… and the Lessons They Taught.
The Bad Beats You’ll Never Forget
The Stoics, and a bunch of other real old-school types, teach us to not have regrets and to live in the present.
But I’m guessing they never lost a 5-leg parlay on the final leg with a brutal Super Bowl beat, with an entire offseason to think about it afterwards.
There’s just more riding on the Super Bowl, even if you might have crushed it with your NFL bets on multiple weekends during the season. More hype, of course, more fun, more bragging rights, more chances to choke, all of it.
The books get things right most of the time when the Super Bowl rolls around, but the public can easily whiff without paying proper attention.
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The Most Brutal Super Bowl Covers
Scott Norwood, the poor sucker, still goes down as maybe the most famous missed field goal in the Super Bowl. Casual bettors and sharps might forget though – he didn’t impact the spread with his “wide right” miss. (And 47 yards was no chip shot back then, but that’s besides the point).
The Bills were favored to win by 7 for Super Bowl XXV, so make or miss, the kick wouldn’t have mattered ATS.
But many Moneyline bettors did take a beating on that miss. Same with people who had the over, with the O/U at 40.5. The Giants won 20-19. Ouch.
For ATS bettors, it’s hard to top what Tom Brady did to break hearts and bankrolls against the Atlanta Falcons at Super Bowl LI. The Falcons were handing it to New England, up 28-3 in the third quarter. People who picked Atlanta to beat the 3-point spread were already counting their cash.
Brady had other plans, and the most epic comeback (and just as epic backdoor cover) became part of Super Bowl history. The Pats won 34-28.
But I know, and sharps know, that bad beats are part of the game. They’re just extra bad when it’s the Super Bowl.
Why It Happened
Where bettors got it wrong was the inflated spread. The Bills, favored by a full TD, were the story of the Super Bowl that year. They had 9 Pro Bowlers on their roster, with Jim Kelly, Bruce Smith and Thurman Thomas leading the way.
The Giants’ Ottis Anderson won the Super Bowl MVP though. I know. Ottis who? That tells me that there was too much hype and money on Buffalo – no one knew or even really looked at the Giants. Result: the spread was too big, and public money bought it.
A sharp would’ve told you that 7 points for a pressure-packed Super Bowl was too high. Yeah, New York had nowhere near the star power that Buffalo had, but they did have a 13-3 regular season record and a tough as nails defense.
Right there, I’m looking at the ‘dog in game where they’re giving me 7 points.
What the Book Got Right
The books nailed that 40.5 O/U call in the “wide right” game. Split the uprights. And plenty of bettors’ hearts too.
That comes after a full season of sharpening their lines, crunching 16 games of data. (Now it’s a 17-game NFL schedule, I know. Save it).
What the casual betting public needs to know is that come Super Bowl time, the books have it nailed down. Spreads, moneylines, props, all of it.
The last 3 Super Bowls? The spreads posted by the Sportsbooks were within a point or a point and half for each of them by the time we knew the actual final score.
But I bet the casual bettor lost out on much of that action. Those spreads were so dialled in, and the public still loves the biggest storylines, the Mahomes star power, that kind of thing.
By this time of the season, the books are immune to hype, but the public isn’t. Plus people have had two full weeks after the NFL Conference Championships to get pumped full of even more noise.
Lessons Learned
I’ve been preaching emotional detachment when it comes to NFL betting since Day 1. It’s still the best way to find an edge and boost your bankroll.
Takes practice, but it can be pretty easy once you know. Like with strength training, it becomes muscle memory.
I like to save my football emotions for my buddies, the beers and the tailgate. Betting to win though? I go quiet, so I can tune out the noise and focus.
Speaking of that boosted bankroll, managing your funds is critical. I don’t go hard in the early weeks when so much of NFL betting is a crapshoot.
I’ll pick my spots though, and some of the plays I make in the first 3-4 weeks can set me up for the rest of the season. Playing with house money.
Chasing losses? Sucker’s game. Especially if you’re trying to win it all back on the Super Bowl. Move on, don’t look back, stick to the plan.
I also like betting consistent amounts. Keeps my head clear. Like Steve Jobs and his black turtleneck and jeans every day. He did it so he could focus on the important stuff.
Every Beat Teaches Something—Even If It Hurts
It’s true though. Some wise old dude said we learn more from our mistakes than our successes.
It’s true in NFL betting too.
That Falcons collapse? Maybe you bet the farm on the second half action and got crushed by Brady, Edelman & Co.
Lesson? It’s the Super Bowl, and pressure gets to everyone (except maybe Brady). Slow down before you have an offseason of hurt. The Pats were clearly the better team on the field and on the sidelines that year.
Or maybe you had the Seahawks to cover at +1 against the Patriots for Super Bowl XLIX. Bad beats– I mean really bad – hit at the last minute, when Seattle had to just punch it in for the game-winning TD from the 1. But they called pass instead, the Pats picked it off, and the rest is history.
The lessons there? It was as tight a spread as you can get. And the coaching matchup was the mastermind Bill Belichick vs. the solid but less sharp Pete Carroll.
Tight line? Go with the superior coaching staff. And never look back.