Underdogs Own January. Always Have. If You’re Still Riding Favorites, Good Luck.
It’s hard for the betting public to overcome their bias, even if they’ve been getting dunked on all season long.
The NFL Playoffs are no exception. While the media and the fans (and the books) are hyping the favorites, real bettors still like to go against the grain. And the stats back them up.
Check out how you can cash in big by going for NFL underdogs in January.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel
Welcome to the Dog Pound
Playoff underdogs always matter. And you can usually find the ones to bet on with a couple of simple ground rules.
I’ll talk about the NFL Wildcard games mainly, but the Divisional Round ‘dogs are just as hungry.
Just last season, 50% of the favorites against the spread fell on Wildcard Weekend. And the next weekend, in the Divisional Round? 100% of the underdogs covered.
Why Favorites Fail in January
Pressure’s a killer. Especially in the NFL Playoffs.
Coaches clench, receivers suddenly can’t catch a cold, and elite QBs throw picks that they’d never throw during the regular season.
For these reasons, look for value in the underdogs, and you’ll usually find it. The spreads, to me, are way out of whack when they start hitting the 7.5, 8+ point range.
Games are usually way tighter in January. In places where weather is a factor, offenses just can’t let loose like they normally do. And coaches tip the scales too, with superior game-planning making a difference.
Doesn’t mean I’m blindly picking the underdog on all my NFL bet slips, but it does mean I can smell blood in the water.
ATS Trends in Wildcard and Divisional Rounds
It’s a good time to be a Wildcard underdog.
I don’t get surprised much anymore in NFL betting. But the data for the Wildcard games in the last bunch of years did catch me a little off-guard
In the last 26 NFC Wildcard games heading into last season’s playoffs, underdogs were a pretty wild 17-8-1 ATS.
That’s a solid 63%. Numbers like that, I can get behind.
That Divisional Round 100% ‘dog situation from last season was crazy, I know. You can’t expect that every year.
But still, the underdogs took 50% of the games in the 2023 playoffs, and in that season, they beat the spread in both the AFC and NFC Championship games, plus the Super Bowl for good measure.
How to Spot a Live Dog
Even though I like my rebel status, I’ll still use my head when it comes to NFL playoff betting.
Spotting a live ‘dog is a skill that you need to develop.
I know what to look for, so take some notes…
NFL underdogs in January can be a different breed than the regular season ‘dogs. For me, it’s coaching that tips the scales.
In the regular season, coaches can afford to play around a little, with schemes and by taking chances that might go sideways.
In the Wildcard and Divisional Rounds – all the way to the Super Bowl – there’s way less wiggle room. Coaches need to make the right calls for pretty much the full 60 minutes.
I’ve seen it time and time again. Certain body parts can tighten up in the late stages of an NFL playoff game, on the field and on the sidelines. Clock mismanagement is a big one, and every year I see a coach or two fumble the last minute of a game.
They also try to over-coach. They get too cute, but their players just need to just focus on what they’ve done all season.
In any game where the underdog team has the stronger coaching staff, I’m taking a good look at picking them to cover.
Check Out These January Upsets
Kansas City vs Tennessee – 2017-18
The Chiefs were 8.5-point favorites heading into the game. At Arrowhead, no less. But 8.5 points in the playoffs is a huge spread, and for me, it’s a perfect spot to grab an edge.
The Titans were the #5 seed, Chiefs #4. That’s my first signal. It wasn’t like the top Wildcard team going against a team that fluked their way into the NFL playoffs at the last minute.
Then there’s the mismatch on the field. Tennessee had Derrick Henry, and in the playoffs, especially in the cold weather, a star running back can put a team on his back. Meanwhile the Chiefs were 25th in the league in rushing defense. Huge mismatch right there.
I could have dug deeper maybe, to find even more reasons to pick the ‘dog, but even with just these two things going for the underdog, I know I’m feeling good about taking them ATS.
Minnesota vs LA Rams – 2024-25
The Rams blowout win over the Vikings started with a 2.5-point edge given to Minnesota.
Back to coaching, I think the Rams’ McVay is a top-tier NFL coach that doesn’t crack under pressure. Then I looked at the Vikings. They were coming off a loss to Detroit that would have seen them take the #1 seed and a bye with a W.
To me, that smelled like a classic letdown trap for Minnesota bettors.
They weren’t able to get up for a game just a week later, when they were initially counting on scoring some rest for two weeks, not to mention home field advantage all the way to the Super Bowl.
And they were playing a well-coached team that also played on turf, with a seasoned coach and an even more seasoned QB. Result: easy cover for the underdog Rams.
Bet Contrarian, Win Consistently
January games are usually tight, emotional, and dominated by defenses and coaching adjustments.
Sure there’s a blowout in there maybe. Sometimes a team that is favored is just a juggernaut that you don’t want to mess with.
But I’ll take that 63% edge for the underdog I talked about earlier, especially when the spread seems inflated, a coach is way above his counterpart, or a star RB is playing in the cold against a softer defense.
Just like in Week 1, the contrarian bets are the ones to play in the playoffs.