We’ll find out who’s smoke and who’s fire
Messy Week 1 NFL wins will get exposed quickly in Week 2, and the smart money will know what to look for to spot the frauds.
Unsustainable success is tough to call this early in the NFL season, sure. But there are signs.
Just like there are signs that a team that’s the real deal just got unlucky in the first week, and they’re due for a bounce-back game that surprises the books.
How Teams Get Lucky in Week 1
You’ve probably already spotted some of them. Maybe even swore at them through the TV. The team that wrecked your parlay or your office pool, straight out of the gates. Those guys won?
NFL teams can get lucky in Week 1, no question.
For starters, everyone’s operating partially blind. That includes a weaker team’s opponent. Preseason games offer barely any snaps for regular season starting 11 on either side of the ball. That’s tough for coaches to coordinate. Even tougher for NFL sportsbooks and NFL betting fans to spot. Then there’s the random bounce.
Case in point: The stat line for the Steelers-Jets game in Week 1 will show you a 34-32 Pittsburgh win and Aaron Rodgers’ 4 TD passes.
But it pays to watch the games and the highlights.
What the stats don’t show you is a crucial – and pure luck – play when the Steelers were down 32-31 late. DK Metcalf bobbled a pass that then hit two Jets defenders and a teammate before it ended up back in his arms somehow. That one play got them into field goal position to win the game.
Take plays like that and double-or-triple-check the lines for those teams in Week 2.
Does that mean you should fade the Steelers and their modest -2.5 spread? Not necessarily. But against a tough D like the Seahawks’, it’s worth thinking about.
Shaky calls by the refs, unforced turnovers or missed field goals by the other team, special teams TDs… these can all add up to a W that isn’t really deserved. And smart money players at Lucky Rebel will spot value in the NFL Week 2 lines as a result.
Regression Trends
Regression to the mean is that nerd term to explain the old saying about gravity: what goes up must eventually come down.
In football, it comes fast for some teams. As early as Week 2. But it also means upwards movement, where the cream rises.
The best NFL teams not only have roster depth, but they have the coaching quality to make the right adjustments and game plans for Week 2.
Smart money will spot value in these strong teams and they know there will be opportunities.
Since 2002, Week 1 favorites that were favored by 6 or more points but ended up losing straight up are solid bounce back candidates. How solid? They went 20-5 SU and 19-6 ATS in Week 2.
You’re not going to see a ton of 6+ spreads in Week 1 losses, but when you do, fade the Week 2 haters and take them to bounce back.
And for teams that will come back to earth, we added a few things to look for…
Week 2 Betting: Identifying Contenders vs Pretenders
Ok, so we know luck is a big factor right out of the gate. How else do sharps spot the contenders and pretenders?
Efficiency metrics. Some advanced metrics stats checking helps. Teams that racked up a much higher Week 1 TD rate than they did in their previous season is a tell. You can also generally spot roster quality to back this up. If a team has 3 WR3’s and a journeyman QB, but they put up 38 points, look for a Week 2 reality check coming their way.
Similar metrics to check for compared to last season or their roster include a wide turnover margin and way higher yards per play. Could be luck or just a weak Week 1 opponent. Either way, consider fading them in Week 2, especially if they’ve been given a generous spread.
Situational context. Along those weak opponent lines, smart money looks at a potential contender by seeing if they have a talented D that was just sidelined in Week 1 by new schemes or new defensive coordinators. Those defenses will catch up with more game tape and could close the spread considerably.
Power ratings and DVOA. DVOA – Defense-adjusted Over Average – especially takes into account opponent quality, so it’s a solid advanced metric to use when evaluating Week 1 games for your Week 2 picks. A team that succeeded against a weaker opponent will get a lower DVOA boost than a team that beat a real, quality opponent. Look for teams with high yardage totals but average DVOA. You can also spot a contender with the inverse. A team that has a solid DVOA but a below-average result in yardage (and ATS) should have efficiency underneath the hood. Look for a Week 2 rebound.
EPA/play. Expected Points Added per Play is a solid pretender-spotting tool. You’re looking at flat or even negative EPA/play numbers from their Week 1 games when you’ve got a pretender ready to be unmasked. It means success was more style than actual substance.
Contrarian Opportunities
When a team overperforms in Week 1, you can set your watch to the hype. The media heads get revved up, social media accounts post clips, and public money starts to pour in for that team in Week 2.
The books are not prone to setting inflated lines based on one week – they know better. But they still may need to adjust the lines just to offset this pile of cash coming in on one team.
Smart money watches for big line movements when a heavy “narrative” team is involved.
When this movement seems to come out of nowhere – no big injuries, no personnel moves, just emotion and bandwagon-jumping – it’s like a bat signal for sharps. They fade the steam. Betting the underdog to cover – say because the new line is -6 instead of -4, means betting closer to the true spread. Instant value play.