Early success doesn’t always mean much come playoff time.
Hot starts in any sport get the hype machine going early.
In NCAA Football, the NFL, and even sports that wrap up later in the spring, early success can absolutely set a team up, but they often don’t lead to a finish that anyone remembers.
Sports betting fans can be divided into two camps: the casual bettors who hold onto early season storylines way too long, and the smart money players who know about regression and underlying metrics.
The Mirage of The Hot Start
The first month of any sports season is too small, in terms of sample size, to draw any real conclusions about how strong a team is. The sportsbooks try to get real data but they have to base most of their odds on last year’s results, mixed in with a team’s offseason moves. For the NFL especially, we like the chaos and the mispriced lines, but we still advise more caution instead of putting all your chips into Super Bowl or MVP futures, or even going with the hottest team with a 3-0 record.
In the NFL, a hot start can be the result of a few last-second wins, maybe a soft schedule, or just turnover luck. Sharps know this can turn a fringe playoff team or a lottery team into a supposed contender that doesn’t actually have the depth or coaching to still be standing in December hold up once the hits pile up.
The 2012 Chicago Bears are just one example. They started 7–1. The Super Bowl parade route was being mapped out by their fans, while their success was mainly due to a defense that scored more than usual and used turnover to create shorter fields for their offense. This wasn’t sustainable, and by the end of December they had gone 3-5 in their final eight games. Their QB was the notoriously unpredictable Jay Cutler, their inefficient offense caught up with them, and they ended up missing the playoffs entirely. Anyone betting the Bears for the playoffs or the Super Bowl itself before December was out cash by the time Christmas rolled around.
Hockey teams provide their own mirage too, even if their season isn’t quite halfway done by New Year’s Eve. An NHL team can – and almost every it happens – rip through October on the strength of a hot goalie or a power play percentage above 30%. They end up sitting at the top of the conference with an 8-2 record in mid-November. Fan bases and NHL bettors lap it up.
But by late December, those percentages always slide back toward a sustainable number that matches the talent on the ice. It only takes a 2-6 road swing before their sitting just outside the top 8 in the conference. This year’s Montreal Canadiens squad was 9-3 by November 1, and leading the league in goals scored. Then injuries, tougher opponents and running out of puck luck saw them lose 7 out of 8 straight games and the talk shows turned to talk of next year’s draft lottery.
Sharps would have look beyond the headlines for two signs that the Canadiens were headed for a correction. They’re the league’s youngest team, so that alone means they’re going to struggle to keep up with better, more experienced teams. And that puck luck? Reviewing their win-loss record, the smart money would easily spot that 7 of those early 9 wins were by a single goal, including 5 wins in OT. No way any team can sustain that, and they didn’t. By mid-December they’re likely out of a playoff spot.
The NBA in December? Similar story. A team might come out hot from opening night – fresh legs, new schemes that opponents haven’t had time to study yet, new coach, soft schedule. Then they hit December and that 2-week road swing brings a travel grind to the legs, and they’re facing a tougher run of opponents. The surprise factor is over, and the late-game energy that helped beat a few buzzers is suddenly gone from their legs.
December Doom Factors
By December, NFL teams are deep into the most physically punishing part of their 18-week schedule. Most teams have had their bye week to heal up already, so injuries that are here now aren’t going away soon. This is where thin rosters and one-dimensional offenses get exposed.
A team living on turnovers, easy opponents, and fresh legs in September also run into tons of advanced scouting by their opponents by December.
And for some teams, weather is a real issue. That Miami visit to Orchard Park in mid-December is a world away from September weather in Florida. Same for all the dome teams that need to venture outside after November. Jared Goff’s stats, as an example, all trend worse when the temperature hits the freezing mark. He throws for a full TD less per game and 44 fewer yards when the temp is 32 or lower, and his passer rating drops from 95 to 78. This hits his team’s W-L record directly.
Hockey’s late-year grind is different but just as tough on teams that started hot. By December, an NHL team has already worked through a heavy travel load, and small roster weaknesses like a shallow blue line or unreliable backup goalie start to matter when injuries and fatigue hit. Clubs that rode a hot top line in October can’t keep leaning on the same three players hitting 22 minutes a night like they did with fresh legs to start the season.
Sharps will look for declining pace metrics and goaltending efficiency stats to spot favorites that might be getting inflated lines.
The same type of factors apply to the NBA teams – travel, injuries, and lack of depth start to hit the hot November teams, and by March they’re 20 games back and looking at a lottery pick.
Why December Rewards the Real Contenders
The flip side of hot starts fading is that December can reward teams that are built more sustainably.
This applies to teams in all sports that got more than their share of bad calls and bad bounces. They often have deeper rosters to offset the inevitable injuries and the refs and rebounds start to go their way more.
Betting on these teams can have a built-in edge, since the public money and the books might still be hanging onto the recent memory of that cold start a little too long.