The next stage of the FedExCup playoffs hits Bellerive and some key stats will make the difference
The FedExCup Playoffs get serious this week at Bellerive, where the top 50 players in the standings will play the 2026 BMW Championship. That’ll leave only 30 spots available at next week’s TOUR Championship.
The BMW Championship odds 2026 board is basically Scottie and everyone else. That doesn’t mean you can’t find tons of edges with key metrics that make Bellerive a winnable course for many other of the world’s best golfers. It’s a loaded field. Make your PGA BMW Championship picks based on placements in the Top 5 or Top 20 and load up on non-Scheffler golf props.
Only the Top 50 PGA Players are Left
After Scheffler just laid waste to the field at St. Jude last weekend, many golf betting fans are probably wondering what the Bellerive golf course odds mean for golfers sitting at number 2 through 50.
There’s no cut, so that’s the good news for everyone still licking their wounds after Scottie’s beatdown. No room for an off week either, though. Scheffler could be creating a Tiger-like, in-their-heads feeling that could loom over every shot by Sunday.
Scheffler’s 17-under win at TPC Southwind, powered by a second-round 61, against the top 70 players in the world was a statement. He deserves the +300 outright number he has for the BMW, and it’ll probably get even tighter as the headlines grab more attention during the week.
Which Players to Watch at the BMW Championship
Si Woo Kim was a distant second at 9-under at Southwind. Sam Burns and Alex Noren shared third at 8-under, with Wyndham Clark and Sungjae Im tied for fifth at 7-under. If you’re betting on the PGA you’re always looking at fresh form heading into a tournament, so those names might figure in your bets. They’re entering an even smaller field too, so just by sheer numbers their win probabilities are higher.
Behind them, the board opens up: Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood and Cameron Young are some of the players with larger numbers than we’re used to seeing next to their name.
Those are all quality names and they’re battle-tested enough to handle the elite field.
As a BMW Championship bettor, you need to decide whether you want to lay some cash on the best player – who might come at a premium – or target a player with a fatter number but a cleaner course fit for his style of play.
Bellerive Demands More
That means looking closer at Bellerive. It’s a parkland beast at 7400+ yards. It rewards bombers way more than St. Jude does. Guys who can carry the fairway bunkers. It also punishes the shorter hitters who’ll find themselves on the beach more than they’d like for their second shot.
At the same time, the massive greens are filled with weird ridges and tight landing spots, so precise iron hitters will also stand a better shot.
Bellerive is not a birdie-fest like St. Jude can be. Players can’t spray it around, make a few long putts and survive. The PGA TOUR calls it the “Green Monster of Ladue”. Not that catchy, but hey, marketing isn’t their game. The most monstrous elements are the par-4s, with three of them sitting at 500+ yards. Even a couple of par-3s are no picnic at 215 and 267.
Brooks Koepka did win the 2018 PGA Championship at 16-under at Bellerive, so it’s not impossible to go low when the conditions are right. The course is a bit of a mystery in general for the books and for golf bettors, with an 8-year gap for a PGA event held there since Koepka’s dominant showing.
What’s not a mystery is the overall strategy for finding golfers to bet on. It’s a golf course for complete tee-to-green players, but especially for those who can mash drives that stay on the fairway and control long and mid-iron approaches.
Strokes Gained: Approach Is the Betting Anchor
For any week on the PGA Tour, Strokes Gained: Approach ranks high on what sharps will look at. For Bellerive, it has to be at the top of list.
The course’s length puts a premium on players who can repeatedly hit greens from 175 to 225 yards. It helps if they have shown they can control trajectory in wind. These two factors make for manageable birdie chances instead than 35-foot par saves.
That puts Collin Morikawa at the top of most lists (on paper). He’s elite when it comes to SG:APP and is the current #1 on the entire Tour in that stat category. Can you ignore his T52 finish at the St. Jude, though, where he ended at 3-over? He’s been having a lukewarm season overall, with just 1 top-10 finish in his last seven tournaments. The case for Morikawa is pure course-fit argument.
Matt Fitzpatrick is second in SG:APP this year, and if you ignore his missed cut last month at The Open (which couldn’t be a more different course than Bellerive), you like his chances at the BMW. He’s got 3 firsts, two seconds and a handful to top-10s this season.
Other golfers with A-list SG:APP stats (who aren’t named Scottie Scheffler) but who could be solid value at the BMW Championship include Åberg, Si Woo Kim, Schauffele and Sam Burns.
Betting Values Beyond the Favorite
Burns at +1600 is the best blend of current form and market respect outside Scheffler. He made a 62 in the third round at TPC Southwind, where he finished T3. That 3rd round number shows the upside and mental strength that bettors want in a four-round outright ticket.
Kim’s T2 at St. Jude was very promising, and Bellerive suits his high SG:APP number. His +2500 to win could be the play of the weekend, but you have to wonder why the books are discounting him so much. It could be his current 124th spot on the driving distance stats for the PGA Tour. But he’s also top-10 in driving accuracy percentage with an elite #3 in that crucial SG:APP stat.
Schauffele (+2000) and Åberg both finished T7 last weekend. Picking either one to stay hot could be a solid play. Åberg has eight top-10s this season already. If you think he’s in a position to strike, an outright bet at his current +1800 or a top-10 placement wager could provide a nice ROI.