Get the best betting props, parlays and picks for UFC 326.
An MMA rematch 11 years in the making
The Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira odds are pointing towards the American striker.
But this is a legacy-defining fight for the Brazilian. He’s looking at the twilight of his career, and he’s been on a downward trend lately. Holloway is looking sharper and is a few years away from that legacy vibe to deal with – but with his brawling style he’s always open to a takedown.
Sharps know that any Holloway vs Oliveira 2 betting preview has to come down mostly to numbers. But they also know that old boxing saying: styles make fights.
Check the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
Holloway vs Oliveira I
Holloway vs Oliveira 2 comes 11 years after the first time the two fighters met in the Octagon.
Since that match – which Holloway won by the least convincing TKO you’ll ever see – each fighter has been through multiple Fight of the Year events, picked up the BMF belt, won different weight class belts, you name it. They’re both much different and much more accomplished fighters from the young versions of themselves that dropped the gloves back in 2015.
That Fight Night card was held back about as far from the spotlight as you could get, in Saskatoon, Canada. It lasted under 1:40 in the first round, when Oliveira had to retire because of injury.
What do you take from that fight? Not much. They met at Featherweight, 10 lbs lower than where they’ll be at UFC 326. Holloway took the early edge in shots landed at 14-5, but Oliveira’s sudden and bizarre neck injury left fight fans without much to go on.
Holloway vs Oliveira
The BMF title is on the line for this rematch at UFC 326. UFC purists will dismiss the BMF angle as a gimmick – which it is. But UFC betting fans won’t care. The Holloway-Oliveira 2 odds are close enough, and each fighter is still skilled enough, to make this a potential Fight of the Year candidate.
There are so many reasons this fight is a different ballgame compared to their first matchup.
First up, the pressure. A packed house at T-Mobile Arena in Vegas, with millions watching on TV, is a long way from Saskatoon. But both fighters have been in huge matches before, so don’t expect nerves to get in the way.
Then there’s age and experience. Holloway is 34, Oliveira 36. Holloway’s the clear favorite, sitting at -197 currently. It’s Holloway’s recent form that might give him the edge in the eyes of the books. He’s 4-1 in his last 5, while Oliveira is 3-2.
Since their first fight, Holloway has evolved into one of the best volume strikers in UFC history. He’s a machine, output-wise. He holds the UFC record for most significant strikes landed in a career, with over 3,300. No other fighter is within 1,000 of his total.
Holloway’s iron durability gets him to five rounds easier than most fighters. His 15 fights that have gone the distance have resulted in 13 wins. The judges clearly like Holloway’s striking numbers. For your Holloway vs Oliveira picks, if you think this one’s going all the way, the numbers are clearly pointing to Holloway.
His BMF cred is pretty legitimate too. UFC fans still talk about Holloway’s last‑second knockout of Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 to win the BMF belt, and Holloway managed a successful BMF defense against Dustin Poirier later on. Both fights showed his style translates to 155 from his usual featherweight level, so the Holloway-Oliveira odds aren’t taking a hit against Max as far as jumping weight classes is concerned. This means Oliveira, the more natural at that weight, isn’t getting the edge on pounds alone.
But the Brazilian is still a force. Oliveira rebuilt himself at lightweight, going from inconsistent showings early on to becoming a dominant finishing machine. He’s held the UFC lightweight title and defended it. And even though he’s in his mid-thirties, he’s still regarded as one of the most dangerous offensive fighters in the sport. He can submit from anywhere. His wins on the ground have come by way of rear-naked choke, guillotine, armbar, anaconda choke, and even the rare calf-slicer.
That danger also comes from his balance of KO power with submission variety. Great for him, but tougher for UFC betting action on Holloway vs Oliveira moneyline and props. Which way can he end the fight? Oliveira has 10 wins by KO/TKO and 22 by submission.
UFC 326 Betting Strategy
Your UFC 326 betting strategy might look like this…
If you think Oliveira can pull off the upset, you should lean towards the props that say he’ll do it by submission. It’s tough to imagine him going toe-to-toe with one of the best strikers in MMA history and coming out on top.
If you think it’s Holloway all the way, it’s because you like his striking percentage and his durability. A KO play by Holloway, especially in the later rounds, could be the betting move. That counts on him wearing down Oliveira over 3-4 rounds, leaving his chin open later on for a finishing strike.
The odds for the fight to go the distance are leaning No, at -218, while the Yes is at +166. The books and the public money are clearly expecting a decisive finish by either fighter, based on their history of closing out fights.
There’s no undisputed belt attached to this fight. It’s for legacy, and whatever importance they attach to the BMF gimmick. Both Holloway and Oliveira have recently lost to Ilia Topuria, who’s holding the belt right now. Both also dropped their fights to top contender Arman Tsarukyan.
So how do you come up with the edge for this one then?
You’ve got the leading striker in UFC history against the record-holder in submission wins in UFC history. Pick the style you think drives this epic fight and align your UFC 326 bets accordingly.