One of the best Fight Night lineups we’ve seen has some opportunities
Abu Dhabi has emerged as one of the must-stop draws for UFC fans and fighters in the last 16 years. It’s become the Vegas of the Middle East when it comes to big draws inside the Octagon.
The UFC Abu Dhabi (aka UFC Fight Night) on Saturday, July 25, is loaded again. No title fights, but enough punishing fighters and style contrasts across different weight classes.
For sharp UFC betting fans, this kind of card – loaded, but without brand names skewing the lines – offers the perfect betting scenario.
Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov
Guskov is stepping in late to replace the injured Khalil Rountree Jr.
He’s the first Uzbek headliner in the UFC, so he’s walking into the Octagon pretty amped up. Whether that makes up for the short notice, we’ll see. While casual betting fans and some books might discount him as an unprepared sub, keep in mind he was already training for a rematch against Jan Blachowicz next month. He’s in fight shape, even if he’s had to adjust to the style he’s up against with Ankalaev.
At +410, hopefully he’s crammed hard. Guskov is a big underdog on the main card for UFC Abu Dhabi – Ankalaev vs. Guskov. That’s because no one thinks #2 light heavyweight Ankalaev is going to miss this shot to set himself up for a return title shot after he held it 15 months ago. Ankalaev lost the belt to Alex Pereira at UFC 320, but he should still be at the top of his game.
There’s not a ton of value with his -575 to beat Guskov. One is still close to peak titleholder status, while the other is a late sub who has a solid KO game (15 of his 19 wins have been by knockout) but not much else matchup-wise.
The 57% takedown defense that Guskov holds is his Achilles heel. Ankalaev should get inside and take him down with ease.
Where does that leave betting opportunities for Ankalaev vs. Guskov? The round props. As much of a disadvantage as it is for Guskov to come in late prep-wise, it can also mean that the Russian fighter will need more time to figure him out too. The Over at 1.5 is -170, and Guskov might be too savvy a vet to go down earlier than that.
Check out the latest UFC odds at Lucky Rebel.
Steve Erceg vs Ramazan Temirov
The co-main for the next UFC Fight Night features what should be a wild one between two flyweights.
Aussie Steve Erceg is the known one in this matchup, ranked #10 in the UFC in his class, while Temirov is unranked. The oddsmakers are giving Temirov plenty of respect though – this fight is close to even odds at the moment, with Erceg the slight ‘dog at -103 and the Uzbek Temirov at -115 currently.
The wild side to this one lies in Temirov’s style. He goes against the stereotype for UFC fighters from that region, the wrestling ground & pounders. He’s more likely to stay on his feet and throw haymakers and spinning kicks. He also hasn’t been taken down yet in his UFC career.
That leaves a higher volatility against a vet like Erceg, who is more comfortable wrestling, but it also makes the KO/TKO odds more attractive. Temirov is at +225 to win by KO. TKO or DQ. That’s a solid number if you think his active style and relative unknown status will open Erceg up for a big shot to get through.
What you might be into with Erceg is his smarts and staying power. His loss to Pantoja in a title fight in 2024 could easily have ended in his favor. Erceg almost had the champ beat, and it went the full five.
The Aussie’s last 3 fights have all gone to a decision. For this Temirov bout, the fight-to-go-the-distance odds sit at -138 currently. Not a sexy number, but a reliable one. The books know that this is a close fight and Erceg doesn’t have much KO power. If you think his style and reach advantage – five inches – can keep Temirov away, you might like Erceg to win by decision at +155.
Islam Dulatov vs Wellington Turman
Dulatov is probably the biggest draw at UFC Abu Dhabi this weekend.
His only loss came in his first fight as a pro, and since then he’s ripped through the welterweight division with 12 straight wins. This is why we’re looking at some of the biggest lopsided odds we’ve seen, with the Turkish fighter at -1000 going into the Octagon against Turman.
UFC bettors usually like to catch a newer fighter on the rise before the public money and the books have caught up to the news. No surprises here though. Turman (+650) hasn’t fought since 2023, and his record of 18-8 comes against few known fighters, while Dulatov has seen plenty of attention from the fight crowd.
Fight fans will be watching this one to catch the dominance of a rising star like Dulatov, to see how quickly he can get the job done. If you think Turman can get past Round 1, where Dulatov’s round-of-finish odds are only paying -210, have a look at Round 2, where the same result pays +450. There’s a shot that Turman can do enough to keep Dulatov off-balance as the fighters feel their way through the first round.