Which Bets Are Dead and Which Ones Are Alive.
Championship futures are fun to look at, but they’re also supposed to make sense if you want to make any actual cash. Figuring out where to spend some of that bankroll before the first play of the season can score you some great value.
What Futures Bets Actually Are
Talk to the smart money bettors across pro sports and you’ll usually hear some stories about their W’s with odds that seem like a typo. Getting +900 up to +1200 or higher on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl ahead of the 2024-25 NFL season? That actually happened. Problem is, you would have needed to pick 1 out of 32 teams in August to make it work.
But sharps know that futures betting can make sense when you look at the value. You’re not really going for a 1 in 32 shot. We all know half those teams won’t even sniff the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl. Right there you’re looking at 1 in 16 instead. From there, it’s data and coaching and offseason moves to narrow the odds down even more. The sportsbooks don’t have the same luxury – they need to use last season’s data in their models more than the smart money does.
And it’s not just the Super Bowl. The same futures betting mindset happens whenever you’re looking at early championship odds for the World Series, Stanley Cup, NBA Finals, Premier League, Golf, or a dozen other sports that are months away from crowning a champion.
Sportsbooks post futures odds before the season and keep adjusting them as injuries pile up and wins and losses shift the market. The smart money bettors are ok with their money being locked up for months, which is the trade-off: you get longer odds and can look forward to a potential payday that is much bigger than it would be betting the week before the final game or series, but you also lose flexibility and the opportunity to use that bankroll elsewhere.
Futures aren’t just about who might win, even if that’s the ultimate point. They’re about determining whether the price and the time commitment fit your edge. If you’re tying up a big chunk of your playing cash for 6-9 months, you want the bet to be based on more than just vibes.
Dead vs. Alive: How to Read a Futures Bet
A futures ticket is alive if two things are true: the team has a realistic path to win, and you know – as much as you can know anything in sports betting – that your number is better than what the market is currently offering.
It’s dead if your price is stale and the team’s path has turned into a real long shot. Even if they’re still mathematically in the mix. The most “alive” your bets will be is right after the season ends, putting money on next year’s champion. Those odds will usually be the longest you’ll see all year, although you do want to be cautious of one thing: the books know that yesterday’s championship winner is still grabbing every headline. They might sweeten the futures odds to cash in on the public money’s emotions as they rush to grab an early bet. In those cases, either wait a week or two, or at least take another team – don’t take the new champ before they’ve even had their parade.
The cleanest way to think about this is implied probability. Every futures price – like any bet really – is just a probability issue that you need to do some calculations on. Convert the odds to a percentage, compare that to your own projection, and that’s how you judge value. For example, January odds of +400 for Scottie Scheffler to win the U.S. Open convert to an implied probability 20%. If you genuinely think that Scheffler wins the title closer to 30% of the time, then you have a live, positive EV position.
On the dead side, if you grabbed a preseason Chiefs squad at +800 and they’re now drifting to +2500 to win the Super Bowl because they’re barely hanging onto a postseason spot, the market is telling you everything you need to know. That bet technically has life but you’re not beating the current number anymore. The books have fully caught up and the edge is long gone.
Futures and Longshots
The dream of hitting a long shot is part of the reason people – mostly casual bettors, not sharps – will float a few bucks towards some of the longest odds. Leicester City winning the Premier League at +5000 is a classic example. In NHL Hockey, the Vegas Golden Knights’ run from being an expansion longshot to making the Stanley Cup Final in their first season shows the upside of taking a team that the market hasn’t fully figured out yet.
Those stories make great headlines, but they’re lottery picks. The reality across the major leagues is that championships are usually won by teams that started the year with the shorter futures odds. Most winners start the season priced in the low 100’s to 300’s. We say a smart longshot play is fine. But your default setting shouldn’t mean getting hooked by all those extra zeroes.
The sweet spot can be the mid‑tier odds. Teams priced like contenders but not fully respected by the books or the betting public. They’re tied to last year’s results and usually a brand-name bias. That’s where you find alive futures that make sense on the spreadsheet and on the field.
Building a Smarter Futures Card
Shop the number. You have time. That +750 now could swell to +900 after just a few weeks of offseason moves, either by the team you’ve got in your sights or the rest of the field.
Manage exposure over time. Like a portfolio manager, you can diversify, stay patient. You don’t need to build your entire futures card on opening night. Look for market overreactions with a coach signing or a trade.
Finally, know your exit options. Cash‑out features, if you like the number, are a solid option to bank your cash ahead of the actual final. And hedge futures bets too. By November in the NFL, as an example, you have a good idea if your Super Bowl futures pick is dead. Grabbing another team in the mid-range, with signs they’re coming together at the right time, could offset that early season L.