Preview the biggest games of the weekend, led by Texas-Oklahoma and Georgia-Alabama, with rivalry-specific betting angles
Texas-Oklahoma betting and Georgia-Alabama odds headline a great Week 6 college football board built on the SEC and its intense rivalries.
Playoff stakes add to the mix too, and no one can afford a loss in the country’s toughest conference. Your college football Week 6 odds calculations have to start factoring in the intangibles – which teams are built for the CFP and which ones will crack?
Red River Rivalry: Mixed Signals for the Spread and Total
The stakes might be just a bit lower this season for the Texas-Oklahoma battle.
The Longhorns are doing their part, staying locked in as the #1 team in the country since the pre-season polls were running. We see Arch Manning at home, getting better slowly (his numbers so far are almost identical to Peyton Manning’s at the same point in their college careers), and a Sooners team that just isn’t getting it done this year.
The Sooners, at 2-2 and 11th in the SEC, have let things slip recent years. Granted, this Saturday’s game against Texas comes right on the heels of playing Georgia, the #2 team in the country, before last weekend’s bye, so you won’t find a team with a tougher schedule. Still, this is not the Oklahoma program that we’ve seen gunning for a CFP spot every year in the 2010s.
Throw all of that – or most of it – out the window if you’re betting Texas-Oklahoma this weekend. College football bettors should be careful about treating this as just another rankings-based spread. It’s the Red River Rivalry, going back 126 years to 1900. It’s the game every Sooners player and coach and fan circles on the calendar every season, no matter where the team is roster-wise.
Texas is laying a pretty sizable -8.5 with Oklahoma available at +260 on the moneyline. Fits both teams given where they’re at, but that’s a big number in a high-pressure game.
The total is the weirder number though, and it’s where you might find an edge. At 39.5 the oddsmakers are putting a lot of stock into the Sooners’ 5th-ranked D, with the conference matchup and rivalry tightness that could pull points down on both sides. But we’re not so sure.
A final score in the 23-20 or 24-16 range would make sense, and both get you to the Over.
The Longhorns are the better team across the board. Where they have fallen short this season so far is against the spread. They’re 4-0 in the W-L column, but just 1-3 ATS. If you want a side, Oklahoma +8.5 is more appealing than laying the points with Texas.
Picking Oklahoma to beat the spread might go against your Over play, since they’ll need to keep the score low and slow the game down. So pick the game script you think is most likely.
Georgia-Alabama: The Tide’s Home Edge Is Real
Georgia at Alabama is the game of the week if you’re looking at ranked teams instead of just a legendary rivalry.
Both teams are 5-0. It’s first in the SEC (‘Bama) vs. second in the SEC. Winner takes a major edge in the College Football Playoff race.
Tide QB Keelon Russell is looking like this year’s breakout college star. He tossed for 285 and 3 TDs against #16 Mississippi State last weekend and Alabama has not scored fewer than 45 points in a game so far this season. Mississippi State was the first ranked team they’ve played, but Russell and his offense just hung 56 on them. The Tide is getting favored by a coin flip at
-1.5 currently, but they look dangerous. Russell has moved himself into third spot in the Heisman futures too.
And who cares who the favorite is anyway? Georgia has been favored in each of the last six meetings between the two teams, but Alabama has won four of those games, including the past two regular-season matchups.
The Bulldogs have handled their schedule too this year, including a 38-14 win over Vanderbilt last week. Georgia QB Gunner Stockton basically matched Russell’s numbers with 295 yards and 3 touchdowns in that win, but he hasn’t faced a ranked side yet this season.
Alabama -1.5 is the play for most of the smart money. The Tide’s defense is #5 in the country and has the slight edge over Georgia’s D. Plus, Bryant-Denny at night has to be one of the toughest environments in the sport. They’re also 14-2 ATS in their last 16 at home against top-10 opponents. A point and a half just means they need to win, essentially.
Where this game could get weird is on special teams.
Here the ‘Dogs have the big edge, coming with the 11th-best special teams crew in the country compared to Alabama’s 56th-ranked spot. If you think the teams cancel each other out in other areas (‘Bama is #1 in the SEC in plays over 20 yards on offense, while Georgia is #1 in the SEC in defending against plays over 20 yards, as one example), this could matter. The Bulldogs have a big edge at kicker and punter, and a late field goal or a punt pinning the Tide deep could make the difference for Georgia.
When it comes the Alabama-Georgia total, don’t chase a higher one if the market moves. People tend to pile into the Overs with big brand name offenses facing each other. At 55.5, there’s room for a 31-27 type of finish and an Over. At 58.5 or 59.5 though, which is where it could get pushed to, the value gets thinner fast. Both teams still have elite defenses.