Conference matchups are all over the place this week, and the CFP conversation is making for interesting betting opportunities
Your college football Week 8 odds need to start accounting for the desperation factor for some teams, and Texas is at the top of the list.
The Longhorns simply can’t lose another game this season if they want to get into the CFP. The Texas-Ole Miss battle is looking like another classic SEC tussle.
The Big 12 has Houston vs. Utah in a game that pits elite D versus elite offense. Utah’s got the GameDay crew rolling into town and they’re going to want to keep Conner Weigman bottled up all game long.
The Houston-Utah odds put some daylight between the teams that might offer an edge, while the Texas-Ole Miss betting fans will need to weight Manning vs. Chambliss and the motivation factor for the sliding Longhorns.
Ole Miss vs. Texas
This is another SEC classic in the making.
The #9 Rebels are feeling it after taking apart ranked Missouri 31-3 last weekend. It was the homecoming game and QB Trinidad Chambliss stepped up for the home crowd. Three TDs, zero picks, a 139 QB rating.
The vibes are almost the complete opposite down in Longhorn country. Texas just got a nasty surprise – at home no less – and gave up 24 unanswered points to lose to the Gators last weekend.
Will we see a whiplash effect for both teams? A team running too high on emotion in Ole Miss, one that might be primed for a letdown? Against a team that’ll come out with a massive chip on their shoulder in Texas?
We can’t decide the betting edge here based on the star QBs alone – they’re too close. Chambliss is playing at an elite level and has since Week 1. And while Arch Manning struggled in the 4th quarter again last weekend, he’s still capable of taking over a game with his arm and his legs. We’ll give the nod to Chambliss and the Rebels overall though,
Betting-wise, we like the defenses to dictate this one, and this is where Texas can regain their mojo.
The Longhorns come into the Texas-Ole Miss showdown with the #3 defense in the country in both total passing yards allowed and total defense in terms of yardage. Ole Miss’ D is mid-tier, even lower-end, sitting 104th and 108th in the same categories.
Ole Miss can counter with an elite offense that is averaging 37.5. Not top-10 level, but a very respectable 20th in the country. What’s crazy is how they’re executing inside the opponent’s 20. They’re #1 in the country with a perfect 100% red zone scoring percentage.
Where does this all leave NCAAF betting fans? Ole Miss is getting a healthy +3.5 for the spread. Extra-healthy when you look at the fact the Texas has lost their last two and are 1-5 ATS this season. Double that when the unfortunate injury to Colin Simmons is factored in. The Texas powerhouse leads the country with 10.5 sacks already this year. Not having him available gives Chambliss more time and more room. Expect the 3.5 line to move tighter towards 3 or lower as this news sinks in for the betting crowd.
As for the total, 53.5 seems high. Texas’ D is one reason. Their offense is another. Manning might be playing extra-conservatively to avoid more sacks and picks.
Texas has dropped to #19 in the country in the AP Poll. Wasn’t too long ago they were #1.
Who knows what happens this weekend when a fired up Ole Miss side is coming up against a desperate Longhorns crew that can kiss their CFP chances goodbye with another loss? Texas is either going to step up for one last push or they’ll collapse entirely, and bettors need to decide which one it’s going to be.
Houston vs. Utah
This reads like an NBA matchup, not a college football one. The Cougars (#14) and the Utes (#10) are both running excellent programs this season though, and this game has huge Big 12 implications. When College GameDay hits Salt Lake City, it’s serious.
Utah comes in as one of only six teams still unbeaten in the FBS. They’re currently sitting at -6.5 and they’re 5-1 ATS this season, plus 8-2 ATS at home since last season. All positive signs for a moneyline play and a spread cover. What should we look out for though, if we want to build a case for a Houston underdog bet?
Motivation is one. Both teams are coming fresh off of 3-point wins last weekend, and both know that a W here can all but put a lock on the Big 12 and an automatic playoff bye-week bid. The Cougars know that as much at the Utes do.
Data is another. The Cougars will be combing over every part of last weekend’s Colorado-Utah game to uncover how the Buffaloes came so close to winning. And then they’ll be hitting those weak spots repeatedly.
Conner Weigman is the third. The Cougars’ QB tossed for 343 and 5 TDs last weekend. Weigman is first in the Big 12 in passing touchdowns and second nationally. He’s also #2 in country in Points Responsible For and in QBR. In short, he gives Houston a realistic shot even against the Utes’ elite D.
He’s going to have to be elite-elite through the air because Utah’s run defense is among the best in the country. They’re top-20 in rushing success rate and they give up under two yards after contact.
Watch the live betting odds for this one. If Houston can step up on defense and get to Utes’ QB Devon Dampier early (he threw two picks last weekend), you could get a solid number on a Cougars cover or even an outright win.
Alabama vs. Texas A&M
Huge spread for the favorites. The Tide (-14) are at home against a struggling but still dangerous Aggies team. Two of A&M’s three losses have come against top-15 teams, and Alabama is currently sitting 13th.
The Jekyll-and-Hyde Aggies have had two shutouts already by a combined score of 91-0, plus wins by 27 and 28 points. So when they’re on, they’re on.
They’ll be fired up against a ‘Bama team that has lost two straight. One more loss and the CFP is definitely gone. Desperation will be a factor, but 14 points is big in a conference matchup against a team that can put up points. Too big. The Aggies might not have the horses this season, but they should keep this one within single digits.