Betting breakdown for key opening playoff matchups.
The NBA playoffs betting picks are here for the taking. After the play-in games, it’s two months of wall-to-wall postseason hoops. And while the first round this year only has limited potential for surprises, there’s value and edges to be found in playoff props and totals. The biggest names in the game – minus Luka – are in action for the push to the NBA Finals, from Wemby to LeBron, KD and Jokic.
Check out the latest odds at Lucky Rebel.
Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs
Every couple of seasons in the NBA, we get treated to a breakout performance.
Two years ago, Anthony Edwards exploded onto the scene. Before that, Donovan Mitchell. And Jayson Tatum before him.
This year, Victor Wembanyama will be the guy. He’s already a star, sure. But the playoffs have a way of spotlighting players with next-level performances that elevate them even higher.
Wemby finished the season 13th in scoring and 4th in rebounds. Those stats don’t show how he took games over down the stretch though. He is fully capable of carrying a team deep into the postseason on his own.
The +1000 for Portland and -2000 odds for San Antonio to take the series is one of the biggest numbers we’ve seen for a 1st Round matchup. And we’re not here to talk you into playing it.
Instead of sinking cash into a moneyline with little to no value, get into live bets and player props for the series. You’ll catch things like Wemby’s points to go Under if you see the Spurs sitting on an 18-to-22-point halftime lead. They’ll rest him up for the second round and limit his second-half minutes. If those ribs that kept him out of the last games of the regular season are any kind of a problem, hit the Under again for his boards and points in any given game. They’re not going to want him banging against a Blazers team that poses no threat.
Or look at totals to go under if the Spurs similarly take a foot off the gas midway through the third quarter or for the 4th. Wemby led the NBA in blocks by a mile this year, and he’s not going to let much get by (or over) him during this series against a Portland team that is undersized and outmatched.
Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers
It’s LeBron vs KD.
It’s not 2010 though. This is the two old salty veterans – 41 years old and 37 years old – each gunning for what is likely their last shot at an NBA title.
The Lakers come into the series as pretty large ‘dogs, but we’re not sure that’s fully justified. They’re 4-1 against the Rockets in their last 5 meetings, and 14-6 SU in their last twenty.
LA’s getting discounted for its health issues. Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves very likely won’t see the floor at any point during the series. That’s two big holes to plug for a bench that ranks just 24th in the NBA this season in bench PPG, at 29.3. That’s often below what Doncic himself drops on any given night in the NBA.
We know LeBron can – and will – step up to fill those gaps. But how much gas does he have left in the tank over a full series?
And Durant? The guy still managed to finish 11th in the entire league in PPG. You know he’s viewing this season as one of his last shots to win it all.
Maybe we count on both players to effectively cancel each other out and rely on coaching and bench strength instead.
For Houston, some of the late numbers might be inflating their odds. Sure, they were 9-1 in their last 10 games of the season. Most of those Ws came against non-playoff teams who were tanking.
LA is +5.5 for the opener this weekend. Watch for LBJ to rise up and coach JJ Redick to pull some surprises out to take down the Rockets. For this game – and possibly the series. The teams were one game apart in W-L record across 82 games. That alone tells you the numbers are too imbalanced. To come out of the West, Houston is at +2800 vs. LA’s +10000.
All in all, that +425 for LA to take the first round altogether looks tempting.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets
Another star-filled series to tip off the first round. The Nuggets have former league MVP Nikola Jokic going up against a potential future MVP in Anthony Edwards.
Jokic, the older vet, still has plenty of game. He led the NBA in rebounds and assists this season, which is the first time that’s ever happened. He’s also the main reason the Nuggets are on a 12-game heater entering the first round of the NBA Playoffs.
Denver is peaking at exactly the right time to make a deep run. They were #1 in the NBA in offensive rating for the past 10 games and they barely turned the ball over during that span. Bad combo for postseason basketball if you’re Minnesota.
Add in the fact that the T-Wolves match up especially poorly against Jokic himself, and it gets worse if you’re a Minnesota betting fan. Jokic averaged a strong triple double against the Wolves this season, bagging 35 PPG to go with 15 boards and 11 assists. They just don’t have an answer for him.
Where Minnesota could steal a game or two is by letting him eat and focusing on their own superstar getting the ball to counter, and letting their bench depth make up the difference. Ant went off against the Nuggets this season himself, averaging 30-6-5 in their head to heads.
And remember the ghosts of two seasons ago, that breakout playoff year for Edwards that we mentioned above. The T-Wolves, in an upset, took Denver down in seven games. Edwards now has two years’ worth of growth and Denver is two years older and slower.
Should be a close series, and that +265 for Minnesota looks tempting if it goes long. It all comes down to Jokic vs Edwards and who you think has the stronger supporting cast.