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NBA Playoffs: The War Between Favorites and Underdogs

Western Conference: Dominance at the Top  

While the middle of the pack could see competitive series, the two best West teams could very well dominate their respective matchups. Oklahoma City and San Antonio have been, far and away, the best teams in the West, and arguably the entire league.

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(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Phoenix Suns

This could be the most lopsided contest of the first round. The Oklahoma City Thunder’s (64-18) dominance has continued, while the Phoenix Suns (45-37) have overachieved behind rookie head coach Jordan Ott’s leadership.

  • The Situation: The Thunder have been the ultimate two-way team (7th in offensive rating, 1st in defensive rating). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on his way to a second consecutive MVP award. Their well of depth is seemingly bottomless. Meanwhile, the Suns have had a surprise season, boosted by Dillon Brooks’ career-high scoring average (20.2). Jalen Green provides additional scoring punch, while Devin Booker continues to be the team’s main option. As predicted, Game 1 was a lopsided win by the Thunder, who flashed their depth on both ends despite a relatively subpar game by SGA – at least, due to his standards.
  • Lineups
    • Oklahoma City
      • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
      • Luguentz Dort
      • Jalen Williams
      • Chet Holmgren
      • Isaiah Hartenstein
    • Phoenix
      • Devin Booker
      • Jalen Green
      • Dillon Brooks
      • Jordan Goodwin
      • Oso Ighodaro
  • The X-Factor: Suns’ three-point shooting. The Suns take 42.1 percent of their shot attempts from beyond the arc, sixth highest in the league. Meanwhile, the Thunder opponents have taken 40.4 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, the sixth highest opponent three-point rate in the league. The Suns were able up their three-point attempts relative to the number of offensive possessions against the Thunder, but made only 31.2 percent of them – obviously, not good enough. Meanwhile, the Thunder pounded them on offense and defense, as was expected.  If the Suns can’t budge the Thunder defensively, there is little hope for them to do anything of note this series.
  • The Call: The Thunder (-20000) will simply be too much for the Suns (+3000). Even if Shai continues to be just “okay,” the depth surrounding him means he doesn’t have to spend all of his energy carrying the team. Meanwhile, as was shown in Game 1, the Suns are too limited in talent and depth to make a dent against a juggernaut. Thunder in 4.  

(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (7) Portland Trail Blazers

In only his third season in the NBA, Victor Wembanyama has officially become a playoff participant. In leading the San Antonio Spurs (62-20) to the second-best record in the NBA, Wembanyama displayed why he was touted as arguably the best prospect in NBA history, living up to the hype through his dominance as a defensive anchor and an offensive repertoire that is rapidly improving. On the other end, the Portland Trail Blazers’ (42-40) late-season surge and win against the Suns in the play-in game find them in a matchup against a near-insurmountable obstacle.

  • The Situation: The Blazers will have to find a solution for Wembanyama, who finished the season averaging 25 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.0 steal, and 3.1 blocks. After Game 1 in which the French phenom displayed his dominance, Game 2 saw his unfortunate early exit due to what is being considered a concussion. The difference in Portland’s rim pressure was stark. Scoot Henderson – the third pick in the 2023 draft, two spots below Wembanyama – is having a career rejuvenation after being written off. Will the Spurs be able to find answers for Henderson, Avdija, Clingan, and company? Will Wembanyama return in time to cut off the Blazers and their renewed confidence?
  • Lineups
    • San Antonio
      • Stephon Castle
      • De’Aaron Fox
      • Devin Vassell
      • Julian Champagnie
      • Victor Wembanyama
    • Portland
      • Jrue Holiday
      • Scoot Henderson
      • Toumani Camara
      • Deni Avdija
      • Donovan Clingan
  • The X-Factor: Portland’s rim scoring. The Blazers have the fifth-highest rim attempt frequency in the league. Against a team with a rim-protecting behemoth in Wembanyama (opponents shot 8.7 percent worse than expected at the rim against him this season), will the Blazers and Avdija find ways to effectively create offense off of their rim pressure? With Wembanyama’s potential prolonged absence, now is the chance for them to increase their aggression in the paint and go at the Spurs, who are now without not only their best defender, but without this season’s unanimous Defensive Player of the Year.
  • The Call: The Spurs (-440) are this season’s team of destiny, while the Blazers (+340) may just be happy to have made the playoffs at all. Wembanyama feels inevitable – as inevitable as the Spurs winning this first-round matchup. The difficulty may have slightly increased with him probably missing a game or two, but the result will remain in San Antonio’s favor. Spurs in 6.

Eastern Conference: The Emergence of Upstarts

The East has a new sheriff in town in the form of the Detroit Pistons, while a team expected to be rebuilding has refused to bend to rebuilding forces and instead has surprised plenty of people with a second-seed finish.

(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (8) Orlando Magic

This season has seen Cade Cunningham reach his potential – while also having even more room to improve. That has helped boost the Detroit Pistons (60-22) to the best record in the East. Meanwhile, after a season that ended in a first-round exit, the Orlando Magic (45-37) find themselves in the playoffs again, albeit with little improvement on their standing despite acquiring Desmond Bane.

  • The Setup: Detroit built their season on a defense that forces the most turnovers in terms of opponent turnover rate. But in Game 1 against the Magic, their weaknesses were bared for everyone to see. Using a defensive strategy that involved collapsing on Jalen Duren rolls to the rim, the Magic were content with sagging off the perimeter against the Pistons’ poor spacing and subpar shooting. Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs’ shotmaking was sublime, while the typically inept Magic offense showed signs of life by moving the ball and creating good looks for everyone. Meanwhile, the Pistons’ offense was skewed heavily in favor of Cade, who was, for all intents and purposes, a one-man show. That needs to change if the Pistons are to take back control.
  • Lineups
    • Detroit
      • Cade Cunningham
      • Duncan Robinson
      • Ausar Thompson
      • Tobias Harris
      • Jalen Duren
    • Orlando
      • Jalen Suggs
      • Desmond Bane
      • Franz Wagner
      • Paolo Banchero
      • Wendell Carter Jr.
  • The X-Factor: Non-Cade Offense. Cade cannot be the only source of offense for the Pistons. In Game 1, he took 38 true shot attempts – that is, the combined number of field goal attempts and free throw attempts. That number constituted 33 percent of the team’s true shot attempts. Everyone around Cade has to make themselves available for a shot, while Cade should look to find the open man and have more confidence in his teammates to make shots.                                                                                 
  • The Call: The Pistons’ (-210) problems with their offense beyond Cade Cunninham is a legitimate concern. The Magic (+175) have had an inability to muster consistent offense, but Banchero and Suggs had a near immaculate shotmaking game. Odds are that it won’t be a sustainable form of offense, while the Pistons could lock in defensively and squeeze just enough offensive juice to take the series. Pistons in 6.

(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers

Widely expected to be a gap year for the 2024 NBA Champions, the Boston Celtics (56-26) – through elite coaching and an All-NBA season from Jaylen Brown –  exceeded expectations to finish second in the East. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers’ (45-37) chances could bank on the health of Joel Embiid, despite the rise of Tyrese Maxey and the emergence of VJ Edgecombe.

  • The Setup: After a Game 1 that the Celtics expectedly dominated, Game 2 saw a much different story. Even without Joel Embiid, the Sixers used dynamic performances by Tyrese Maxey and and VJ Edgecombe to take a surprising win, and in the process wresting home court advantage from the heavily favored Celtics. The Sixers were scorching hot from three: 19-of-39 (48.7 percent). The Celtics’ defense excelled in the regular season due to their philosophy of shutting off the rim and letting opponents resort to jumpers – including from beyond the arc, resulting in them having the highest opponent three-point attempt rate in the regular season. Is this a mere anomaly that won’t happen again? Or are the Celtics in true trouble?
  • Lineups
    • Boston
      • Derrick White
      • Sam Hauser
      • Jaylen Brown
      • Jayson Tatum
      • Neemias Queta
    • Philadelphia
      • Tyrese Maxey
      • VJ Edgecombe
      • Paul George
      • Kelly Oubre Jr.
      • Adem Bona
  • The X-Factor: Joel Embiid’s status. Recovering from surgery due to appendicitis, Embiid’s rather unfortunate stroke of misfortune when it comes to health has struck the Sixers at an inopportune time. They’ll need Embiid to have a decent chance of pulling off the upset. Without him, the burden placed upon Maxey may be too much of a weight to carry, even if it did pay off in Game 2. Additionally, even if Embiid returns, the Celtics may feast on his lack of lateral movement on defense (e.g., going with a small lineup replete with shooting). Even a healthy Embiid, at this point of his career, hasn’t been able to prove he can anchor a defense like he used to.
  • The Call: Boston (-800) has flashed their caliber and class all throughout the season. Joe Mazzulla has proven himself to be an excellent coach. The Sixers’ (+550) chances depend on the murky possibility that Embiid will return; if not, it will bank heavily on Maxey as the Sixers’ first option. Even if Embiid does come back, there is little time to ramp up toward 100 percent health and form, while it’s valid to question just how much carrying Maxey can do as the series progresses. Celtics in 5.

Joe Viray is a Lucky Rebel NBA guest writer who actually watches the tape. He covers the Warriors for Golden State of Mind and the wider league for SBNation. Follow him at @JoeVirayNBA.