MLB playoff baseball means 100-win teams can get sent home and the regular season might not matter
Win 100 games, spend six months looking like the best team in baseball, and October still guarantees you nothing.
Sure you’ll get the perennial big-budget teams like the Yankees or the Dodgers making an annual run deep into the MLB playoffs, but even they aren’t chalk every year. Neither of them sniffed the Fall Classic in the early 2020’s, and the same from 2010-2016.
A team with a top-3 record in the majors is rewarded a playoff spot, maybe a bye, and that’s it.
After that, one bad inning can turn an excellent season into nothing. All you end up with as an uncomfortable press conference. It can all turn MLB bets sour unless you know which factors to look for that could make an underdog live.
In the MLB Playoffs the Standings Don’t Give You a Head Start
The 2023 postseason is a prime example. Atlanta won 104 games, Baltimore won 101, and Los Angeles won 100. All three were eliminated in the Division Series, not even making it to the ALCS or NLCS. The Braves lost to Philly in four games, while the Orioles and Dodgers were swept by Texas and Arizona.
What happened varies between each series, but the overall theme was consistent. They were very successful regular season teams that ran out of room to recover in the tightly packed MLB playoff format. A team can survive a long weekend sweep in May or July – they just move onto the next town or head home to host the next series. In October, if the bats go cold for 3-4 days or the bullpen loses the strike zone, it’s over until March.
Arizona didn’t wait for LA to drop in either hitting or pitching, they just took control of that year’s NLDS. The Diamondbacks finished the regular season barely above .500 at 84–78. That was sixteen games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The run differential for both squads was even crazier. The Dbacks were -15 in run differential that season, while the Dodgers were +207.
No matter. It was a 3-game sweep for Arizona. And it showed how streaky teams can crush the overwhelming favorites. Arizona hit four home runs in the third inning of Game 3. Those blasts supplied every Diamondbacks run in a 4–2 victory. They didn’t need anything except one hot inning to bring out the brooms.
For MLB bettors, series like that are tough to gauge at first. It’s not like the standings lied. LA really was that good and that dominant from late March through early September.
There were signs though, and some digging into advanced stats might have scored a few Dbacks bettors a serious payday.
How to Spot Potential Upsets
We’ll use that LA-Arizona 2023 NLDS as an example, but the lessons could help you spot reasons for any MLB playoff betting strategy as to why you shouldn’t always rate the regular season too high come playoff time.
For starters, look at the starters. LA had the perfect storm of Clayton Kershaw (a lot of mileage, and battling injuries), a rookie (Bobby Miller) and a homer-serving vet in Lance Lynn. Lynn gave up 44 dingers during the season, leading the league. Each one of those “weaknesses” represented an opportunity for Arizona to start mashing, and they did. The Dbacks outscored the Dodgers 19-6 over three games. Look for similar holes or vulnerabilities if you’re going to go with the ‘dog over the 100-win team.
Rest is another potential trap. LA had a five-day bye for the Wild Card round. More, if you add in the fact that they cruised in the final week of the regular season. For hitters especially, rhythm can get interrupted. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, two of LA’s top hitters and normally clutch in the MLB postseason, were 1-21 combined when Arizona showed up.
The flip side of too much rest is an underdog team that’s playing every night or 3 out of 4 nights and is on a heater. Sure, the pitchers’ usage rates are higher so there is a risk of tired arms in the next series, but smart bullpen management can take care of much of that. The upside is that the hitters are in a rhythm and usually have only a day, two max, before the next series starts – that means little time to cool off.
The Format Gives Upsets Room to Happen
MLB’s current format sends twelve teams into the postseason, six from each league. The top two division winners in each league get byes for the first week. The remaining qualifiers play best-of-three Wild Card Series, followed by best-of-five Division Series. The League Championship Series and World Series are best-of-seven.
That structure does reward the regular season for the top 100+ win teams, but short-series danger is real. If there are multiple teams that crossed the 100-win mark, odds are good that at least one of them won’t get the bye. That puts them in a best-of-three in the Wild Card round, and that means two off games and they’re done. That can also mean just one or two rough innings. No room to recover, as opposed to a 162-game regular season where a team can shake off a tough week.
Respect the Favorite
We’re not saying these upsets happen every major league baseball season. Not every ‘dog is a smart bet. A lot of the stronger teams got to that point because of a deeper rotation and smart managing, two items that serve teams well in the playoffs too.
The mindset for any MLB betting fan means you don’t treat a 100-win season as insurance either. Regular-season quality matters.
For solid plus-money payouts for MLB odds that come from upsets though, look at what’s happening in late September and early October, and erase what you know from the summer.