Preview the biggest NCAA Football games of the weekend and find out where the edges are
This is no Mendoza Bowl, but the Week 7 Ohio State-Indiana showdown will still be a must-watch event.
OSU is sitting at #4 in the country and Indiana’s right behind at #5. Good enough for a game with serious CFP implications. The Big Ten title could be decided this weekend.
For SEC watchers, it’s the same pressure-filled game with Tennessee-Alabama, #14 vs # 6, and a handful of other games where college football betting fans will be locked in.
Ohio State vs Indiana
Given their current rankings, this one is priced tight. OSU is at -3.5, a road favorite. Right off the bat, college football betting fans might be looking at the Hoosiers 1-5 record ATS this season as a deciding factor. They’re winning but not firing on all cylinders like they did when Fernando Mendoza was still in Bloomington.
OSU is a stronger 4-2 ATS this season so far, but they’re not coming into this one with a full deck. Their O-line is battling injuries. That’s bad timing coming in against the Hoosiers’ defense. Indiana sits 4th in the country in yards allowed per game (and within that, just 75 yards rushing allowed per game) and they’re 5th in points allowed, giving up just 11.8 ppg. Importantly for the passing defense, they’re also in the top 20 when it comes to sacks per dropback. If you think they can hang out in OSU QB Julian Sayin’s kitchen all afternoon, then you might like Indiana to cover and even take the W on the moneyline at +155.
The upside for the Buckeyes comes in two words: Jeremiah Smith. Having the most talented, feared receiver in decades on your side means you don’t need to lean so heavily on the rush. That takes away a key strength of the Hoosiers and it helps put a band-aid on the limping offensive line. Sayin is also playing some elite ball this year and has the Buckeyes hitting over 500 ypg so far.
If Smith gashes Indiana for another monster game, Hoosiers betting fans can at least rely on the potential for their own offensive output. QB Josh Hoover is helping them to 40 points and 462 of total offense per game.
With all this offensive firepower on both sidelines, it looks like the Over at 50.5 is within reach. NCAAF history also shows both teams hitting the Over 7 times in their last 10 head-to-heads.
Alabama vs Tennessee
Week 7 of college football also brings the “Third Saturday in October” rivalry (seriously need to get each team’s marketing department to come up with something catchier) between the Crimson Tide and the Volunteers.
But it is the 109th edition of the game, so it does qualify as a legitimate rivalry.
If you like the idea of a bounce-back game for a top-tier team, Alabama is your pick. They just lost 20-17 to Georgia and will be looking to remove the sting. It also becomes a must-win for Alabama, since having two L’s on your name before November almost eliminates your CFP chances. So motivation will be peaking for the Tide.
They might also be licking their chops at the fact that Tennessee QB Faizon Brandon is hurt. Facing a backup QB in a huge SEC game, or at least going against Brandon when he’s not 100%, could make for a big edge for ‘Bama bettors.
Even with a healthy Brandon, Tennessee’s offense is weaker than it has been in years. They only managed 24 points against both Auburn and Arkansas, two teams close to the bottom of the SEC. The Vols did keep it close against #1 Texas in a 20-17 loss, but those 17 points scored won’t be enough against Keelon Russell, who’s getting stronger every week and has put up a minimum of 45 points against every team this season except Georgia last weekend.
The X Factor here, in what looks (on paper) like a fairly easy -8.5 cover for the Tide, is the Tennessee home field advantage. Since head coach Josh Heupel took over in 2021, they’re an insane 26-4 SU at home. Neyland Stadium is now officially the loudest stadium in college football. The Tide’s Russell, who’s basically a freshman, has been excellent this year but this is a whole different level in terms of environment.
Tough call all around here. That TD+ spread for Alabama looks daunting at Neyland. They’re also clearly the more talented side though. We laid out the main factors – you need to make the final decision.
Notre Dame vs BYU
With all the Big Ten and SEC action in Week 7, it’s easy to overlook this game between the Fighting Irish and the Cougars – but it’s a battle between two squads in the top 10 of the AP Top 25. Notre Dame is sitting #2, BYU #8.
The Irish have won an insane 16 straight by double digits. Can they cover the -10.5 this week though? In Provo, against a D that is #10 in the country against the run?
That Cougars’ defense might be peaking at the right time too. They just hit a 32% Havoc Rate against Iowa State, a number that beats LSU’s #1 ranking in the same metric this season. Havoc Rate measures disruption caused by all parts of a defense – front-five, secondary, and against the QB. They’re going to go all out against that elite Irish offense, especially since they won’t be able to run their own star RB LJ Martin, who’s out with an injury. That defense plus the crowd might be enough to help BYU beat the +10 spread.